For a country that turned its back on its southern and eastern flanks for decades, Turkey is proving that little in Middle Eastern geopolitics is permanent. Indeed, Turkish diplomacy is on a roll, and its recent ventures are all about turning its neighbours, once bitter rivals, into allies.As a former imperialist power, Turkey carries baggage that has been difficult to overcome. In his state-building endeavour, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founding father of the Turkish republic, decided to ignore previous Ottoman imperial possessions and their political legacy. He and his successors saw the Arab East as essentially backward and conflict-prone, with little to contribute to Turkey, while the West was offering a model of development, capital and technology to build a modern state. The Middle East was relevant to the republic in only two regards: the territorial threat of Kurdish nationalism and power politics during the Cold War.
For decades Turkey managed to defy the weight of history and the constraints of geography, but this posture could not survive the regional consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of a US-designed but wobbly regional order, or stay confined to countering the Kurdish separatist movement and its terrorist arm, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Ankara thought its future lay squarely in the West, but its hopes of joining the European Union have been frustrated by EU member states who fear that Turkish accession would overextend the Union and dilute European identity, not to mention the enduring dispute over Cyprus. Turkey had to look elsewhere, and almost reluctantly came the realisation that its immediate neighbourhood could generate economic returns and strengthen its geopolitical weight.
The accession to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a moderate Islamist organisation, provided the domestic impulse to redefine the country's approach to the Middle East. Under the AKP, Turkey is rediscovering its eastern identity, combining it with moderate Islamist ideology into what is known as a neo-Ottoman outlook. This seeks to anchor Turkey as a pivotal Asian actor whose economic wellbeing depends on a stable environment: something it does not have yet. So a confident Turkey is going about shaping that environment with an ambitious “zero problems, zero enemy” policy, the brainchild of the foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu.
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This strategic reorientation has been obvious in the intense diplomatic activity of recent weeks. The most striking achievement is the establishment of diplomatic ties with Armenia, a country in dire need of regional integration, and the re-opening of the Armenian-Turkish border after 16 years. Conveniently, an “impartial scientific examination” will determine how to define the killing of more than a million Armenians during and just after the First World War. This arrangement may be scuttled by the rage of many in both countries, but a longstanding taboo has vanished.
Then there was the first meeting of the Turkey-Syria High Level Strategic Cooperation Council in Aleppo, crowning a decade-long rapprochement between the two countries. Of course, this would not have been possible without Turkish bullying and
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document.write(''); Snubbed by Europe, now Turkey looks to the East
Emile Hokayem, political editor
Last Updated: October 20. 2009 9:41PM UAE / October 20. 2009 5:41PM GMT
For a country that turned its back on its southern and eastern flanks for decades, Turkey is proving that little in Middle Eastern geopolitics is permanent. Indeed, Turkish diplomacy is on a roll, and its recent ventures are all about turning its neighbours, once bitter rivals, into allies.As a former imperialist power, Turkey carries baggage that has been difficult to overcome. In his state-building endeavour, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founding father of the Turkish republic, decided to ignore previous Ottoman imperial possessions and their political legacy. He and his successors saw the Arab East as essentially backward and conflict-prone, with little to contribute to Turkey, while the West was offering a model of development, capital and technology to build a modern state. The Middle East was relevant to the republic in only two regards: the territorial threat of Kurdish nationalism and power politics during the Cold War.
For decades Turkey managed to defy the weight of history and the constraints of geography, but this posture could not survive the regional consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of a US-designed but wobbly regional order, or stay confined to countering the Kurdish separatist movement and its terrorist arm, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Ankara thought its future lay squarely in the West, but its hopes of joining the European Union have been frustrated by EU member states who fear that Turkish accession would overextend the Union and dilute European identity, not to mention the enduring dispute over Cyprus. Turkey had to look elsewhere, and almost reluctantly came the realisation that its immediate neighbourhood could generate economic returns and strengthen its geopolitical weight.
The accession to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), a moderate Islamist organisation, provided the domestic impulse to redefine the country's approach to the Middle East. Under the AKP, Turkey is rediscovering its eastern identity, combining it with moderate Islamist ideology into what is known as a neo-Ottoman outlook. This seeks to anchor Turkey as a pivotal Asian actor whose economic wellbeing depends on a stable environment: something it does not have yet. So a confident Turkey is going about shaping that environment with an ambitious “zero problems, zero enemy” policy, the brainchild of the foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu.
document.write('');
This strategic reorientation has been obvious in the intense diplomatic activity of recent weeks. The most striking achievement is the establishment of diplomatic ties with Armenia, a country in dire need of regional integration, and the re-opening of the Armenian-Turkish border after 16 years. Conveniently, an “impartial scientific examination” will determine how to define the killing of more than a million Armenians during and just after the First World War. This arrangement may be scuttled by the rage of many in both countries, but a longstanding taboo has vanished.
Then there was the first meeting of the Turkey-Syria High Level Strategic Cooperation Council in Aleppo, crowning a decade-long rapprochement between the two countries. Of course, this would not have been possible without Turkish bullying and Syrian capitulation. In 1998 the Turkish army threatened to “enter Syria by one side and exit by another” unless Syria ended its support for the PKK. The Syrian president, Hafez al Assad, caved in and expelled the PKK leader, Abdullah Ocalan, from Damascus. Syria also had to accept the loss of the province of Hatay, also known as Alexandretta.
Obviously it is easier to conduct a zero-problem policy when the opposite side surrenders, but the Syrian-Turkish rapprochement is now irreversible, motivated primarily by economic factors, although common political interests exist, including mutual concern about Kurdish minorities and distrust of US policy. Syria will have to accept junior status in the relationship but the strategic benefits to being attached to the world's 17th largest economy and the vague possibility that Turkey could eventually displace Iran as Syria's patron are palatable.
Turkey cannot build the same rapport with Iran, a traditional rival that compares in history, size and influence, and with a revolutionary and Islamist outlook that contrasts with Turkey's secular and status-quo preferences. But the two countries have no territorial dispute, and as long as Iran underperforms because of its isolation and does not interfere, Turkey can afford cordial relations. Should Iran become a nuclear power, though, pride and standing may well force Turkey to match it.
Even on Iraq, Turkey is measured. It launched a few attacks on Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq and watches with concern the tension between federalism and central authority, but as long as Iraq denies sanctuary to the PKK and territorial integrity is preserved, Turkey has no interest in meddling in Baghdad.Its ambitions go beyond good neighbourly relations. Turkey also seeks to become a regional mediator. It has peacekeeping troops in Lebanon and Afghanistan and is building relations with Gulf states who see this Sunni giant as a possible counter-balance to Iran.
There are limits to Turkish appeal, though. By drawing closer to Armenia, Turkey is antagonising Azerbaijan. And when Ankara mediated between Israel and Syria, it failed because it lacks leverage and gravitas. In fact, Turkey may no longer be able to play that role in the Arab-Israeli conflict because of rising anti-Israeli sentiments in Turkey, illustrated by the outburst of the prime minister, Recep Erdogan, in Davos, and more recently by the withdrawal of an invitation to Israel to join an important military exercise. The Arab world may cheer, but not everyone in Ankara is convinced of the wisdom of sacrificing good ties with Israel and jeopardising relations with the West in the process.
But however bumpy Turkey's reorientation may be, it is likely to endure.ehokayem@thenational.ae
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Added: 10/21/09 09:39:00 AM
Turkey is not accepted in the EU, not because the member states are 'scared' to dilute the Union's identity but on the principles that Turkey is still largely run by the military, which is a fundamental hurdle. Secondly how can the EU possibly consider a nation that does not recognise one of its own which is Cyprus.Finally there is a mention that Turkey distrusts US policy, perhaps that is correct about the government and people, however the military is still strongly aligned as is Israels to the Foreign State Department.Yes secular Turkey is turning East, and perhaps it is leverage against Iran, however is that really a policy not apporved by the US?
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