The Taliban Will Fight ... and Lose

Ten days after Pakistan’s armed forces began their offensive on the Taliban stronghold of South Waziristan, what progress is being made and what are the chances of ultimate success?

Waziristan is the largest chunk of territory along the north-west frontier; it is harsh, rugged, semi-mountainous terrain, with very few springs and waterholes, and therefore sparsely populated. The last census two decades ago (all censuses of Tribal Areas are notoriously inaccurate) calculated the population of South Waziristan, the area of the Mehsud tribe, at 250,000. A rough estimate today would put it at about 400,000, of whom 200,000 left before the attack began, and about 150,000 have gone since. The remaining 50,000 Mehsuds are more or less equally divided under Hakimullah Mehsud and Wali ur Rehman, both former deputies to the late Baitullah Mehsud.