Iran is expected to respond in the coming days to a deal brokered in Vienna by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that, if approved, would provide some respite in the continuing nuclear dispute. But beyond providing an understandable sigh of relief, does the deal assist the wider effort to persuade Iran to demonstrate nuclear transparency and good behaviour? In other words, who benefits more from the time gained – Iran or the international community?
The short-term benefits of the draft deal are undeniable: Iran would send a significant amount of its low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia to be turned into fuel rods that would power a research reactor in Tehran, preventing it from being turned into weapons-grade material. The deal could postpone a still hypothetical Iranian decision to produce highly-enriched uranium (the main component of a nuclear device) by up to a year as Iran rebuilds its LEU stockpile, creating more time for a diplomatic solution. But the deal could also defuse an international sense of urgency while Iran maliciously persists in its nuclear pursuit.
When word of a possible deal was first floated in discussions in Geneva that also featured a bilateral meeting between the US and Iranian delegates, it was hailed as a sign of Iranian flexibility by some and a deceptive delaying tactic by others. But analysts and government officials are still hard pressed to explain why Iranian negotiators came to the Swiss city ready for a deal and then wavered.
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