Miliband for Brussels, Mandelson for Labour

William Rees-Mogg, The Times November 2, 2009

Who is going to lead Europe? Who is going to lead Britain? The latest opinion polls have not improved the dismal outlook for the Labour Party. In yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph, an ITN poll put the Conservatives 17 points ahead with 42 per cent, Labour second, with 25 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats third, with 21 per cent.

The only fragment of good news for Labour was that the BNP recorded only 2 per cent. However, this poll confirms that an unchanged Labour Party would probably suffer a landslide defeat in a general election next May.

The contradiction is that the Labour Party is still reluctant to do anything that might avoid the train wreck. Most Labour MPs accept the near certainty of defeat; most of them think that a change of leader is the only step that would give Labour a chance, not actually of winning, but of saving some seats. Gordon Brown is said to take the view that no one else would do any better than him, but that is hard to believe; he is now extremely unpopular with the voters, almost as unpopular on the doorstep as the memory of Tony Blair.

What is even more surprising is the appearance of a relatively large group of potential future leaders of the Labour Party; a plausible case can be made for each of them. The most intriguing figure is Peter Mandelson. In theory, he could come back to the House of Commons if Parliament enacted a new clause in the Constitution Bill, which would allow him to leave the House of Lords and fight a constituency in the new year.

The case for making him Labour’s next leader is that he is the best campaign strategist, if one excludes that other political maestro, Tony Blair. Lord Mandelson’s performances in the House of Lords have been masterly; he seems to have lost the aura of suspicion that used to hang around him, but he has kept all his old bite.

There are at least three other more conventional candidates who would be more popular than Mr Brown. Harriet Harman has had the difficult job of Leader of the House of Commons during the period of the expenses crisis. Most people think that she has handled it well. She is popular among trade unionists and women. If Mr Brown did resign, there would have to be a Labour Party election involving the three Labour electoral colleges — Parliament, the trade unions and the party membership. At present, Ms Harman has good support in all three of these constituencies. If she stands, she may win.

A more defensive choice would be Alan Johnson, candidate of the decent guys. He has a mild charm, not unlike that of John Major in the 1990s. Few people feel strongly about him, but they find his personality pleasant. A more obviously meritocratic choice would be David Miliband. Here the selection would become more complicated. David Miliband is not only a very plausible candidate for leader of the Labour Party; he is also a strong candidate for the new Lisbon Treaty post of “High Representative of The Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy”.

In fact, Mr Miliband would be well suited to becoming the European Union’s first Foreign Minister, perhaps better suited to that job than to being a party leader or Prime Minister. Mr Miliband’s abilities seem to be those of a diplomat rather than a leader. I recall the success of Anthony Eden as a Foreign Minister and his failure as a Prime Minister.

The appointment of a British High Representative would depend on Tony Blair failing to secure the other new European post of President of the Council. It now looks as though Mr Blair has proved too grand for Europe. Yet the temperamental factors that have told against Mr Blair are those that might turn in favour of Mr Miliband. The leaders of the European governments are, for the most part, people with big egos of their own. President Sarkozy of France notoriously likes to be the most important person in the room; most French Presidents do; it is a gene they inherit from President Charles de Gaulle.

It seems more likely that the presidency will go to a good EU manager, a man – or woman – who is happy to play down his own ego, if he can negotiate to get his own way. The younger Tony Blair often got his way because of his exceptional charm, but he now presents the image of a natural leader who can threaten the delicate vanities of others. I think David Miliband might well be a more acceptable figure to Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor.

Europe also has the English question to negotiate. There is no doubt that many English people feel cheated by the handling of the Lisbon Treaty and the refusal of the promised referendum. The shrewder European leaders, such as President Pompidou of France, have always seen the importance of Britain as a stabiliser of Europe.

Historically, Britain has repeatedly wrecked European empires; they defeated Spain in the 16th century, royalist France in the 17th and 18th, and Napoleon in the early 19th. Britain outside Europe might again become a factor of division inside Europe. Yet the Conservatives, who would have represented Britain’s national interests more vigorously, were out of office in the vital 12 years in which Lisbon was planned, negotiated and ratified.

Europe will need to nominate a Foreign Minister who knows how to negotiate with Britain. Unless there is a post-Lisbon settlement, the alternative might be for Britain to leave the European Union. There may also be a need to negotiate on the terms of the missing referendum, which was promised by Mr Blair in 2005. No one would do a better job of such a negotiation, from the European point of view, than Mr Miliband. David Miliband for Brussels, Peter Mandelson for the Labour Party, and David Cameron for Downing Street might well be the best team.

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William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council

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