Polls are much more useful as a guide to real political support than by-elections, but by-elections can have greater impact. The latest opinion poll, taken by ICM for The Independent on Sunday, gives Labour 25 per cent, the Conservatives 39 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 17. That is only a single poll, a snapshot of public opinion, but it is much more reliable as an indicator than Labour’s victory in the Glasgow North East by-election.
Glasgow has, however, had a notable impact on the psychology of the Labour Party. There are fears that Labour will lose Scotland to the Scottish National Party. Scottish support is not enough on its own to give Labour a broader victory at a general election, but it is an essential ingredient in Labour winning any future general elections.
If the day comes when the Conservatives have the majority in England, which in terms of votes they already achieved in 2005, and the Nationalists have the majority in Scotland, then that will threaten the whole future of the Labour Party. Their victory in Glasgow North East makes that seem less likely, and Labour has breathed a sigh of relief. Even the Prime Minister has looked more cheerful since the Glasgow result became known.
Some recent opinion polls have not been as good as yesterday’s for the Conservatives; these had raised the spectre of a hung Parliament in 2010, although with the Conservatives becoming by far the largest party. ICM’s 14-point lead would return the Conservatives with a large majority, which was the general expectation until a week or so ago.
However, recent polls have reduced the Conservative lead to about ten points, and that is a level that makes politicians nervous, because small swings can produce crucial differences in seats.
The outcome of a 40-30 per cent split between the Conservatives and Labour is different from that of a 39-29 or 41-31 split. I use the conversion table provided by the academics Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher. It is notoriously difficult to convert votes into seats, but seats decide who will govern.
If the Conservatives were to win by 40-30, they could expect 319 seats, six less than would be required for an overall majority of 325. If they won by 39-29, they would win only 314 seats, 11 short of an overall majority. If, on the other hand, they were ahead 41-31, they would win 327 seats giving them an overall majority of five. The system is quite highly geared.
Britain is still five months away from the most likely date for a general election, but these figures show that it is on a knife edge. A small recovery for Labour, or a small advance for the Tories, would make a crucial difference to the outcome in seats. Indeed, this has led to some confusion.The polls do not suggest that the choice is between a Tory victory or a hung Parliament. The likely alternatives are a Conservative Government with an adequate majority, or one with no overall majority, but with the largest number of votes and seats. The best parallels are with the Labour victories in October 1964 and in the first general election of 1974, in February.
In 1964 the Labour Party had a majority of votes, and was the largest party in seats, but had a majority of only four over the Conservatives and Liberals combined. The natural outcome was that Harold Wilson became Prime Minister and was able to hold a second election in May 1966, which he won decisively.
In 1974, there were two elections. The first was fought on the issue of “Who governs Britain?” and resulted in Labour winning a narrow majority of seats over the Conservatives, but having no overall majority against the other parties combined. The Conservatives won the largest number of votes.
In this case, Harold Wilson became Prime Minister, and called a second election, which he won, in October of the same year. Labour had a very small overall majority, and was eventually defeated in the House of Commons in 1979.
At the next general election, it is quite likely that the Conservatives will again win the largest number of votes and seats, but will fall short of an overall majority. In that case, it would be open to Gordon Brown, if he was still the Labour leader, to test the opinion of the House of Commons. He would need solid support from the smaller parties to make that worthwhile. In February 1974, Ted Heath, the outgoing Prime Minister, did not have enough support to challenge Wilson.
The situation may, of course, be quite obvious. If the Conservatives have won more than 310 seats, and a large majority of votes, they would be the inevitable party of government. Opinion polls suggest that this is a quite likely outcome, as is an outright Conservative victory giving them an overall majority.
One of the arguments for the existing system of election, first past the post, is that it usually produces a definite result. Proportional systems have the defect — if it is regarded as a defect — of failing to produce overall majorities. In some notorious cases, such as the 1920s Weimar Republic in Germany, proportional representation has produced dangerously weak government.
Most people do want the next general election to produce a definite result; they do not want to wait for a second election, as in 1974. The voters feel that it is time for a change. The Prime Minister has lost the confidence of the public.
There is also a pressing need to clear up the budget deficit. It is now so large that Government expenditure will have to be cut, and taxes will have to be raised by any government that may be elected.
We shall need a decisive prime minister, and, in comparison with Gordon Brown, David Cameron does seem to be a man who can make up his mind. Gordon Brown should have asked for a new mandate on the day that he become Prime Minister. I suspect that public reaction to his indecision and delay will produce a decisive election result in five months’ time.
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William Rees-Mogg has had a distinguished career with The Times and The Sunday Times. He was Deputy Editor of The Sunday Times before becoming Editor of The Times in 1967, a position he held until 1981. He was made a life peer in 1988. Since 1992 he has been a columnist for The Times, writing on a variety of issues. He has also been chairman of the Broadcast Standards Council and British Arts Council
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