A spectre is stalking the corridors of Westminster, the spectre of a hung parliament. The prospect induces a jostle of emotions: a rare sensation of hope for Labour people, a creeping dread within Tories and a combination of both thrill and terror among Lib Dems.
It is highly plausible that the 2010 election will be the first in more than three decades to deny any party an overall majority in the Commons. First, because there is a world of difference between Labour losing and the Tories winning. The presence of the Lib Dems and other parties in the equation, combined with the anti-Tory bias of the current seat distribution, means that the Conservatives need to be ahead of Labour by about 10 points to be reasonably confident of securing a parliamentary majority. The Ipsos MORI poll that we publish today has the Tory lead shrinking to six points. Health warning: one poll is a snapshot, not a trend. It will nevertheless cause tremors in David Cameron's inner circle, which has been privately fearful for some time that the race will start to tighten as the election comes clearly into focus. The different formulas used by Electoral Calculus and Swingo both translate a six-point Tory poll lead into a Commons in which the Conservatives are short of a majority.
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