A faint smile flickered across the lips of the Son of Heaven as Barack Obama left the Great Hall of the People in Beijing with a flea in his ear. The creditor-in-chief to America had given his suppliant a humiliating lecture about its spendthrift ways.
“Be not complacent, however,” warned the Red Emperor’s chief councillor. “A new star is rising in the barbarian West. It says here in my copy of Newsweek, the magazine for internationalist-minded running dogs, that we should beware a ‘modest superpower’ with a GDP just behind that of China and the United States combined; it even has a population expected to reach half a billion next year. This giant was once hobbled by disunity, but now its constituent nations have created a dynamic central leadership. This is the hour of Europe, your imperial majesty!”
“Surely the rabble weren’t allowed to elect such elevated personages?”
“Oh no, Holy Highness, it’s just like our beloved people’s republic: the common people have no say.”
“Tell me the name of this western emperor and his foreign policy supremo. Are these men as formidable a team as Nixon and Kissinger, who once negotiated with the Great Mao himself? An iron fist in an iron glove, we thought them.”
“The new president of Europe is Herman van Rompuy, for 11 months prime minister of a small failed state called Belgium and an indifferent practitioner of the Japanese verse form haiku,” came the reply. “And Europe’s first high representative for foreign affairs and security policy is Baroness Ashton of Upholland, from the impoverished island of Britain, whose debts may be likened to those of a drunken sailor after a spree at the gaming tables in Macau.
“Ashton was once vice-chairwoman of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament; she worked for the Social Work Training Council; chaired the health authority in Hertfordshire from 1998 to 2001; and became a vice-president of the National Council for One Parent Families. According to our top intelligence source — codename Wikipedia — she also briefly advised the producers of several US television shows, most notably Boston Legal, on sensitive storylines. This is strongly denied by her camp but she has never been elected to anything. . .”
A roar of uncontrollable laughter resounded through the Great Hall in the compound of Zhongnanhai. It was matched in volume by another in the corridors of the Kremlin and at the Secretariat Building, the Offices of the Indian prime minister.
For this result, the European Union went through the undemocratic process of the Lisbon consti-treaty. For this, Europe’s leaders turned down Tony Blair as president because of his controversial record on Iraq.
Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister, could have been given the foreign job, as he had served the UN and the EU in tight diplomatic corners. No, Bildt has enemies too.
So we have a pathetic lowest common denominator result — meaning the Germans, as usual, got what they wanted.
“If you must choose weak people, they are quite good weak people,” argues one British Europhile, weakly. From Britain’s point of view, van Rompuy may be a federalist but at least he lacks the forceful personality of Belgian predecessors we have vetoed in the past for top Brussels jobs. It is telling that even the most sympathetic European commentators on the BBC and in the media make jokes about his name: “Rumpy-pumpy”, “Rumpelstiltskin”. Witty.
Cathy Ashton has none of the vices of her predecessor, Peter Mandelson, in her current European commission job. It’s not apparent that she has any of his virtues either. By all accounts nice and approachable, she will not rile the bureaucrats of Brussels as naughty, haughty Peter did. However, she has no foreign policy background or independent stature. In short, she is perfect for the new pipsqueak Europe — though, if that is the case, it would be better for the British to hold the post of internal market commissioner, which oversees financial regulation. Now a Frenchman is likely to get it and threaten our City interests.
Since Europe cannot take itself seriously on the world stage, the real importance of this game of musical chairs concerns British politics. David Miliband, the foreign secretary, was of course tempted to be high representative once Blair’s candidacy was a non-runner.
He had minted the job description: the high rep should be of sufficient stature to “stop the traffic in Beijing and Washington”. The European socialist group would have given him the job on a plate.
Brown wanted his troublesome younger rival out of the way too. Exiling Miliband to Brussels would have smoothed the way for Ed Balls, the PM’s protégé, to the succession. It would also have given Mandelson the foreign secretary’s job he has always coveted. As the ultimate networker he would love to dine at the world’s top table and emulate his grandfather, Herbert Morrison, who bore the title in Attlee’s government.
Twice Brown pushed the high rep job Miliband’s way, but the young rival “showed steel”, putting his party above a cushy career abroad. In the words of a key ally: “David is back to being the leading candidate .” Ever since summer his star has been rising; he puts a more sophisticated case for British involvement in Afghanistan than No 10 does; he has an appetite for power. “The party will turn to him,” says his camp.
Once Miliband was out, Mandelson’s name was thrown into the ring. As rumours fly that he and Balls are unsettled at the top, Brown’s frantic diplomacy to secure a British prize in Brussels takes on a darker hue. Why was he prepared to let his chief prop, Mandelson, go? Can he keep the pot from boiling over in cabinet until May? There are a lot of bruised egos around that table.
And what of the Prince of Darkness’s ambitions? He is a true believer in a greater Europe. Now that his candidacy and Blair’s have failed, Brussels reverts to a department for damaging regulation, of common lightbulb standards and straight bananas. As for standing up to Russia or forcing the Chinese to a showdown on trade, forget it.
The lord president came back to London to save new Labour and save Brown. There was a sporting chance that under his guidance the prime minister could pull himself together and ride the wave of economic recovery. Labour might go down to defeat, but at least the Tories would be bloodied.
You can do only so much with a slow-witted pupil. Brown has stumbled since the summer and Labour is obstinately stuck 13 points behind the Tories in the polls. Where is the glory for the first secretary in running an election campaign that ends in ignominy? Mandelson is forced to see the European job going to the woman who succeeded him in his previous European post, whom he despises and envies in equal measure. Meanwhile, Miliband holds tight to the magnificent George Gilbert Scott-designed FCO building and his friendship with the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton. Mandy has to put up with uncouth Alan Sugar, the business czar. Life just isn’t fair.
Last time round Mandelson persuaded key ministers not to topple Brown on the night of the cabinet reshuffle. I don’t suppose Mandelson will move against Brown in any coup, but if the prime minister were to wobble again, I’m not sure the first secretary would be quite so assiduous at hitting the phones on his behalf again. Brown had better put no more noses out of joint.
And if Mandelson and the opinion polls have given up on Brown, will the Labour party just drift on down the river towards certain defeat? Probably. As John Redwood said of John Major in a similar hole: “No change, no chance.” Labour and Europe look united on one thing: neither is prepared to take itself seriously.
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