Imagine the assignment: As a staffer at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), you have been tasked with the seemingly routine mission of keeping tabs on a country's progress toward a proposed agreement. Sounds easy enough; you might go back and read presidential statements, follow the ambassador's movements, and try to deduce a prospective reply. But if the country is Iran and the agreement is on sending uranium abroad for processing, you'd be out of luck. Since the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany (the P5+1) first proposed the arrangement on October 1, pronouncements and leaks from Tehran have said everything from "Yes, we'll cooperate" to "No, we won't" to "Then again, maybe."
Today, many of the world's leaders are, like the imagined staffer, at a loss as to Iran's true view. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei concluded during the first week of November that "the foreign policy apparatus in Iran has frozen." U.S. President Barack Obama echoed that fear on Nov. 9, saying that Iran was not "settled enough politically to make quick decisions on these issues." As a result, Obama emphasized 10 days later, "we have begun discussions with our international partners about the importance of having consequences."
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