We Cannot Wish Away Iran's Bomb

David Aaronovitch, The Times December 1, 2009

The Iranian bomb is beginning to feel like one of those horrible things you saw coming all along, but never felt quite able to stop. It reminds me of the fall of Zimbabwe into its late Mugabe phase — all the elements were there, but you kept hoping that he would see sense, or be deposed or something. In three years or five, maybe there will be pictures of Iran’s Supreme Leader reviewing a march-past of his nuclear rocketry, while we wonder how it all happened.

We will get to this place, first, via the “wasn’t”, as in the Iranian regime probably “wasn’t” developing a nuclear weapon, or there “wasn’t” any utterly conclusive evidence that they were. Readers with long memories will recall the relief that greeted the reporting of the publication in 2007 of the US National Intelligence Estimate. The NIE, we were told, seemed to suggest that the Iranians had shut down their nuclear weapons programme in 2003-04 but had been reluctant to prove it to anyone for capricious reasons of their own. Almost all the people who had originally disbelieved the intelligence suggesting the existence of WMD in Iran and Iraq now firmly believed the spooks. And most of those who had trusted their every warning before were now pretty sceptical.

Whatever the truth about the weapons’ existence, it was argued that Iran didn’t have a “weaponisable capability”, so that even if a warhead could be produced out of all this newly and unnecessarily enriched uranium, the mullocracy wouldn’t actually be able — ceteris paribus — to attach a firework to a stick and send it fizzing towards the enemies of the Islamic Republic.

I sense this confidence has taken a knock. Once you have the rider, most experts seem to agree, training the steed is mostly a matter of time. So it was with just about all the other nuclear nations, and now there are suggestions from different sources that Iran is indeed researching a weapons capability. Far more convincing than mere spookery was the forced admission by the Iranians in September of a hidden 3,000 centrifuge mountain plant near Qom. That was followed by their more brazen announcement this week of building plans for another ten enrichment plants. Since Iran has huge natural energy resources and also the promise of Russian nuclear fuel for any nuclear energy plants, this capacity makes little sense, unless it is either for bombmaking, or to make people think that it is for bombmaking.

This brings us, puffing, into the next station along the way, which is “doesn’t” — as in it “doesn’t” really matter that much if Iran gets a bomb. A rhetorical — but irrelevant — companion to this argument is that it is hypocritical to complain about an Iranian bomb when the French and Brits (not to mention the Israelis) have bombs of their own. To which one can only admit that, yes it is a bit, but that (a) there are historical reasons for this that would take some unpicking and (b) the solution, as suggested in the Non-Proliferation Treaty, would be to lose nuclear weapon capacity rather than to spread it to every nation that feels inclined to own H-bombs of its very own.

More relevant is the view that the risk from a mullah missile is much less than the risk of trying to prevent it. This argument tends to emphasise the sophisticated — no, exquisite — system of checks and balances imagined to exist within Iran, which might prevent any wild-eyed fundamentalist getting his millennarian hands on the ultimate millennarian weapon. According to this view President Ahmadinejad and his ilk are either far more pragmatic than his map-wiping rhetoric might suggest, or else are constrained by much wiser, almost invisible forces inhabiting the bodies of unseen grey-bearded clerics.

Like many people, even if I can’t buy “wasn’t”, then I have a desire to go along with “doesn’t”. The feeling of mission fatigue in this country and in the US is palpable. We almost lack the spare mental capacity to consider how to deal with the difficult “other”. We have intervened in Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia and Sierra Leone. We have agonised over Gaza and Lebanon. We have debated Darfur and Zimbabwe. It is all so difficult, so intractable, that the easiest answer seems to be to withdraw, to let things alone, to hope that they will go away. The hope can direct us towards the preferred answer; it is more comfortable to believe that it won’t matter that much if Iran does get nuclear weapons. No one, after all, has dropped a bomb since Nagasaki.

I could share this feeling but for two things. The first is that there was very nearly a nuclear exchange betwen Pakistan and India on May 27, 1998, and I am far from convinced that we won’t come to regret the South Asian bomb. The second is that the future of Iran is far from clear. Take this straw in the wind: last week the Canadian-Iranian film-maker, Maziar Bahari, who was arrested and imprisoned for 118 days after last June’s protests in Iran, gave an account of his treatment at the hands of the regime. Already we know that “Green” protesters were tortured, raped, made to sign false confessions and to take part in show trials facing concocted charges. What Bahari told us was that his interrogators were not working for the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence but for the intelligence division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

The significance of this was that it constituted new evidence that the Revolutionary Guard have become a parallel security state within Iran, their physical pre-eminence compensating for the political weakening of Mr Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei. Do our calculations about the Iranian bomb survive its effective possession by the Revolutionary Guard?

There is no grand military option in Iran, only the near-fantasy of the “surgical strike” in which the uranium enrichment programme is destroyed and, along with it, almost certainly, the Iranian democratic movement.

But there is still one possibility that could rule out both military action and the spectre of the Guard Bomb. That one possibility is united international action to impose targeted sanctions on the Revolutionary Guard and their political backers, and on the nuclear programme. It would mean agreement by the Russians, the Chinese, the Germans, the French, the Americans and us to occupy a single position.

Otherwise we could find ourselves facing some great terrible future Chilcot inquiry in which we seek to answer how it was that we failed to stop the last, worst Middle East war.

Order By:

Would you like to post a comment? Please register or log in

function blogURL(bUrls) { window.location=bUrls; } fieldset { float:left; width:165px; border:0px; margin:0px; padding:0px; } OUR COLUMNISTS

Columnists

Select David Aaronovitch Simon Barnes Camilla Cavendish Jeremy Clarkson Giles Coren Robert Crampton Daniel Finkelstein Michael Gove Anatole Kaletsky India Knight Dominic Lawson Leo Lewis Rod Liddle Magnus Linklater Ben MacIntyre Bronwen Maddox Minette Marrin Carol Midgley Caitlin Moran Richard Morrison Matthew Parris Michael Portillo Libby Purves William Rees-Mogg Melanie Reid Peter Riddell Hugo Rifkind Sathnam Sanghera Frank Skinner Graham Stewart Andrew Sullivan Rachel Sylvester Janice Turner Guest contributors

Blogs

Select Alpha Mummy Archive Blog David Aaronovitch Asia Exile Baby Barista Blockbuster Buzz Gerard Baker Charles Bremner Big Brother Mary Beard Comment Central Consumer Central Cricket Blog Eco Worrier Faith Central Fashion Formula One Ruth Gledhill Inside Iraq Ariel Leve India Knight Money Rafael Nadal News Blog William Rees-Mogg Rugby Sinofile Mick Smith Sports Commentary Irwin Stelzer Peter Stothard Surf Nation Technology Travel Urban dirt Video Wimbledon

David Aaronovitch

David Aaronovitch is a writer, broadcaster and commentator on international politics and the media. He writes for The Times Comment page on Tuesdays. He has previously written for The Guardian, The Observer and The Independent, winning numerous accolades, including Columnist of the Year 2003 and the 2001 Orwell prize for journalism. He has appeared on the satirical TV current affairs programme Have I Got News For You and made radio broadcasts on historical topics

Read more from David Aaronovitch Camilla Cavendish wins award for family justice campaign

Columns urging greater openness in family courts win Paul Foot Award

Cartoon More cartoons Peter Stothard

The Editor of the TLS writes on books, people and politics

A Don's Life

Mary Beard of Cambridge and the TLS on culture ancient and modern

Top 10 Tiger Woods jokes on the internet Comment Central MOST READ MOST COMMENTED MOST CURIOUS Most Read Skip Most Read Today Beauty queen Solange Magnano 'died for a... Iran threatens detained British sailors with... Taking the private jet to Copenhagen Major cities at risk from rising sea level... MOST COMMENTED Skip Editor's Pick Today if(isArticle == "true" && articleHeadlines.length!=0){ for(var j=0; j=45){ headline = articleHeadlines[j].substring(0,44)+"..."; } document.write(""+headline +""); } }else{ fSubmitMostCommented('http://community.timesonline.co.uk/ver1.0/Direct/Process'); } MOST CURIOUS Skip Most Curious Today Water-cooler moment of horror as disgruntled... Corks pop as Large Hadron Collider goes off... Jane Austen probably died from tuberculosis,... Stephen Gately death is Google's most... Focus Zone Need to Know:

Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast

Business Travel:

Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip

Winter Sports:

Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports

Mapping Business:

We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?

The Future of Energy:

Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge

Europe by Train:

With rail travel in Europe on the rise, we review the benefits of travelling by train

My Dinner Party:

In this special section we explore new food trends to help improve your dinner party and impress guests

More reports:

Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more

Need to Know Business Travel Winter Sports Mapping Business The Future of Energy Europe by Train My Dinner Party More reports Births, deaths, marriages

Place your announcement

Find an IFA

Find a local independent financial advisor

Crossword Club

Free CV Review

Sell yourself! Have your CV reviewed by experts

Announcements

Search The Times Births, Marriages & Deaths

Online Sudoku with daily prizes Find a Lawyer

Cut your legal costs

Classifieds Cars Jobs Property Travel Cars Skip Cars of the Week Ferrari F355 F1

1998 £47,955

Virgin Car Insurance

12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount. Offer ends 31/11/09

Apply for car finance?

Check your free Experian credit report before applying

Great car insurance deals online

Car Insurance

Search for more cars and bikes Jobs Skip Jobs of the Week LAY MEMBER

£353 per day Phonepay Plus London

The Sentencing Council for England and Wales

£12,000 plus expenses Ministry of Justice London

Chair of the British Library

£37,000 Department for Culture, Media and Sport London

Member of the BBC Trust

Currently £36,285 Department for Culture, Media and Sport London

Search more Jobs Properties Luxury development in the heart of Battersea.

Moments from Battersea Park.

Double-fronted 4 bed, 4 reception house near Eltham Palace.

For sale with Winkworth

Eager to get on the property ladder?

Find out about shared ownership.

Looking for a Mortgage?

See your free Experian credit report beforehand

Search for more properties Holidays Skip Travel of the Week Malaysia Grand Prix with Premier Holidays

Accommodation, flights, tickets to the race and a KL city tour for only £999pp PremierHolidays.co.uk

Ski Weekend Specialists since 1986

For your�ultimate tailor-made ski holiday, click here

Great Travel Insurance

Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com

Fabulous Villas in Barbados

World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club.��Private estate overlooking West Coast Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf

Search for more holidays Place your advert now

Search Ad Reference:

Where am I?

Home Comment Columnists David Aaronovitch Contact us Back to top NewsCommentBusinessMoneySportLife & StyleTravelDrivingArts & EntsArchive

Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.

News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround

This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.