In recent weeks Russia seems to have undergone a conversion in favour of international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme. This came into the open when the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, joined the US president, Barack Obama ,in warning Tehran that time was running out for diplomacy, and that work was in hand to develop the “pressure track” – the term that Moscow has preferred instead of sanctions. Having previously ruled out sanctions, Russia now says it is “obliged to bear in mind this possibility”.
Mr Medvedev's conversion started a debate among foreign policy experts. Is Russia really ready to sign up to the type of crippling sanctions envisaged by Washington? And does this mean that the president is emerging from the shadow of his predecessor, Vladimir Putin, who is now serving as prime minister? Mr Putin has always ruled out sanctions except as a very last resort. If Mr Medvedev is the man who speaks for Russia on foreign policy – and does not get slapped down by Mr Putin – then life for Russia's interlocutors will be much easier. The exasperated US Defence secretary, Robert Gates, has complained that “Russia offers two perspectives on the rest of the world, depending on which leader you are talking to.”
Mr Medvedev's more assertive stance on foreign policy is mirrored at home, where he is carving out a position as a modernising liberal compared to Mr Putin, whose record is the creation of a bureaucratised semi-authoritarian state. This has led to a revival of the old art of Kremlinology – always a blunt tool — to see who is on top.One thing is certain: Russia plays a key role in Iran, due to its military and industrial ties with Tehran. Relations between Russia and Iran are now increasingly strained. The Iranians accuse Russia of delaying the delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft systems, one of the jewels in the Russian arms export industry. Delivery of the S-300 would move the diplomatic stand-off into new, more dangerous military territory. The self-assurance of the divided Iranian regime would increase in the face of threats of Israeli air strikes. But in the logic of international relations, news of the delivery of the missile could prompt an early strike.
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At the same time, Russia is accused of delaying the commission of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a project began in the 1970s, mothballed for decades, which Russia agreed in 1995 to complete. The Russians say that testing is a lengthy process and are not giving any guarantees when it will be finished. A clear cause for the cooling of relations between Moscow and Tehran is the Iranian rejection of a Russian-supported proposal under which Iran would send low-enriched uranium to Russia and France for enrichment. This proposal had nothing to do with nuclear weapons: the nuclear material was for use in a research reactor for medical purposes. The Kremlin has not taken this rebuff lightly. A lot of effort and Russian prestige went into putting together this proposal.
There are objective reasons for the Russians to be angry with Iran, and to ditch their previous reticence about sanctions. These factors coincide with a subtle change in the balance of power inside Russia between Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev. Mr Putin hand-picked his successor, having eliminated all other rivals, and it was generally assumed that Mr Medvedev would be keeping the seat warm for him to return to the preside
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document.write(''); To read tea leaves in Moscow, watch its treatment of Tehran
Alan Philps
Last Updated: December 03. 2009 11:45PM UAE / December 3. 2009 7:45PM GMT
In recent weeks Russia seems to have undergone a conversion in favour of international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme. This came into the open when the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, joined the US president, Barack Obama ,in warning Tehran that time was running out for diplomacy, and that work was in hand to develop the “pressure track” – the term that Moscow has preferred instead of sanctions. Having previously ruled out sanctions, Russia now says it is “obliged to bear in mind this possibility”.
Mr Medvedev's conversion started a debate among foreign policy experts. Is Russia really ready to sign up to the type of crippling sanctions envisaged by Washington? And does this mean that the president is emerging from the shadow of his predecessor, Vladimir Putin, who is now serving as prime minister? Mr Putin has always ruled out sanctions except as a very last resort. If Mr Medvedev is the man who speaks for Russia on foreign policy – and does not get slapped down by Mr Putin – then life for Russia's interlocutors will be much easier. The exasperated US Defence secretary, Robert Gates, has complained that “Russia offers two perspectives on the rest of the world, depending on which leader you are talking to.”
Mr Medvedev's more assertive stance on foreign policy is mirrored at home, where he is carving out a position as a modernising liberal compared to Mr Putin, whose record is the creation of a bureaucratised semi-authoritarian state. This has led to a revival of the old art of Kremlinology – always a blunt tool — to see who is on top.One thing is certain: Russia plays a key role in Iran, due to its military and industrial ties with Tehran. Relations between Russia and Iran are now increasingly strained. The Iranians accuse Russia of delaying the delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft systems, one of the jewels in the Russian arms export industry. Delivery of the S-300 would move the diplomatic stand-off into new, more dangerous military territory. The self-assurance of the divided Iranian regime would increase in the face of threats of Israeli air strikes. But in the logic of international relations, news of the delivery of the missile could prompt an early strike.
document.write('');
At the same time, Russia is accused of delaying the commission of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a project began in the 1970s, mothballed for decades, which Russia agreed in 1995 to complete. The Russians say that testing is a lengthy process and are not giving any guarantees when it will be finished. A clear cause for the cooling of relations between Moscow and Tehran is the Iranian rejection of a Russian-supported proposal under which Iran would send low-enriched uranium to Russia and France for enrichment. This proposal had nothing to do with nuclear weapons: the nuclear material was for use in a research reactor for medical purposes. The Kremlin has not taken this rebuff lightly. A lot of effort and Russian prestige went into putting together this proposal.
There are objective reasons for the Russians to be angry with Iran, and to ditch their previous reticence about sanctions. These factors coincide with a subtle change in the balance of power inside Russia between Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev. Mr Putin hand-picked his successor, having eliminated all other rivals, and it was generally assumed that Mr Medvedev would be keeping the seat warm for him to return to the presidency in 2012.
But Putinism is losing its appeal. During his eight years in power as president, Mr Putin restored order and prosperity to Russia after the chaos of the 1990s. Real incomes doubled. But the financial crisis has cut living standards, slashed economic output and seen the state's wealth pumped into bailouts of pro-Kremlin oligarchs and doomed industrial behemoths.The contract between Mr Putin and the people is fraying. In Moscow people increasingly do not bother to vote in elections. All this has given Mr Medvedev some space to manoeuvre. No one is expecting a revolution, but over the course of four or five years it is easy to see that Mr Putin will become a spent force. Mr Medvedev is a cautious man. Despite his elevated office, he is often dismissed not as a decision-maker but as “a well-known Russian blogger”. It is far from certain that he is in a position to benefit from the troubles of his political godfather.
Ultimately, I see the rebalancing of forces in Russia as subtle rather than game-changing, and likely to be played out over a long period. As for Iran, it is well to remember that Russian foreign policy is motivated by fear of losing influence, and being relegated to the third rank of states. With Iran, it is in a position of great influence and is quite comfortable dealing with this. When Iran treated Russia's proposal with disrespect, the mullahs should have expected a combative response.
The relative decline of America's prestige, and the more consensual approach of Mr Obama, have eased some of Russia's fears of being sidelined. After Mr Obama's “reset” of relations with Russia, the Kremlin no longer has to announce a knee-jerk rejection of what comes out of Washington. But there is a long road from that position to signing up at the UN Security Council to crippling sanctions against Iran. What is certain is that the Kremlin views America's overstretch in Iraq and Afghanistan as a chance for Russia to gain influence in the world. That is something that both Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin can agree on.
aphilps@thenational.ae
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In recent weeks Russia seems to have undergone a conversion in favour of international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme. This came into the open when the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, joined the US president, Barack Obama ,in warning Tehran that time was running out for diplomacy, and that work was in hand to develop the “pressure track” – the term that Moscow has preferred instead of sanctions. Having previously ruled out sanctions, Russia now says it is “obliged to bear in mind this possibility”.
Mr Medvedev's conversion started a debate among foreign policy experts. Is Russia really ready to sign up to the type of crippling sanctions envisaged by Washington? And does this mean that the president is emerging from the shadow of his predecessor, Vladimir Putin, who is now serving as prime minister? Mr Putin has always ruled out sanctions except as a very last resort. If Mr Medvedev is the man who speaks for Russia on foreign policy – and does not get slapped down by Mr Putin – then life for Russia's interlocutors will be much easier. The exasperated US Defence secretary, Robert Gates, has complained that “Russia offers two perspectives on the rest of the world, depending on which leader you are talking to.”
Mr Medvedev's more assertive stance on foreign policy is mirrored at home, where he is carving out a position as a modernising liberal compared to Mr Putin, whose record is the creation of a bureaucratised semi-authoritarian state. This has led to a revival of the old art of Kremlinology – always a blunt tool — to see who is on top.One thing is certain: Russia plays a key role in Iran, due to its military and industrial ties with Tehran. Relations between Russia and Iran are now increasingly strained. The Iranians accuse Russia of delaying the delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft systems, one of the jewels in the Russian arms export industry. Delivery of the S-300 would move the diplomatic stand-off into new, more dangerous military territory. The self-assurance of the divided Iranian regime would increase in the face of threats of Israeli air strikes. But in the logic of international relations, news of the delivery of the missile could prompt an early strike.
At the same time, Russia is accused of delaying the commission of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, a project began in the 1970s, mothballed for decades, which Russia agreed in 1995 to complete. The Russians say that testing is a lengthy process and are not giving any guarantees when it will be finished. A clear cause for the cooling of relations between Moscow and Tehran is the Iranian rejection of a Russian-supported proposal under which Iran would send low-enriched uranium to Russia and France for enrichment. This proposal had nothing to do with nuclear weapons: the nuclear material was for use in a research reactor for medical purposes. The Kremlin has not taken this rebuff lightly. A lot of effort and Russian prestige went into putting together this proposal.
There are objective reasons for the Russians to be angry with Iran, and to ditch their previous reticence about sanctions. These factors coincide with a subtle change in the balance of power inside Russia between Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev. Mr Putin hand-picked his successor, having eliminated all other rivals, and it was generally assumed that Mr Medvedev would be keeping the seat warm for him to return to the presidency in 2012.
But Putinism is losing its appeal. During his eight years in power as president, Mr Putin restored order and prosperity to Russia after the chaos of the 1990s. Real incomes doubled. But the financial crisis has cut living standards, slashed economic output and seen the state's wealth pumped into bailouts of pro-Kremlin oligarchs and doomed industrial behemoths.The contract between Mr Putin and the people is fraying. In Moscow people increasingly do not bother to vote in elections. All this has given Mr Medvedev some space to manoeuvre. No one is expecting a revolution, but over the course of four or five years it is easy to see that Mr Putin will become a spent force. Mr Medvedev is a cautious man. Despite his elevated office, he is often dismissed not as a decision-maker but as “a well-known Russian blogger”. It is far from certain that he is in a position to benefit from the troubles of his political godfather.
Ultimately, I see the rebalancing of forces in Russia as subtle rather than game-changing, and likely to be played out over a long period. As for Iran, it is well to remember that Russian foreign policy is motivated by fear of losing influence, and being relegated to the third rank of states. With Iran, it is in a position of great influence and is quite comfortable dealing with this. When Iran treated Russia's proposal with disrespect, the mullahs should have expected a combative response.
The relative decline of America's prestige, and the more consensual approach of Mr Obama, have eased some of Russia's fears of being sidelined. After Mr Obama's “reset” of relations with Russia, the Kremlin no longer has to announce a knee-jerk rejection of what comes out of Washington. But there is a long road from that position to signing up at the UN Security Council to crippling sanctions against Iran. What is certain is that the Kremlin views America's overstretch in Iraq and Afghanistan as a chance for Russia to gain influence in the world. That is something that both Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin can agree on.
aphilps@thenational.ae
Have your say
Top stories Clinton looks for Europe's support in Afghanistan IMF cites Dubai debt in trimming its outlook Full Red Line service in three months Massive clean-up follows holiday celebrations Nepal holds cabinet meeting on Everest Freed sailors say they were not mistreated Live blog: Dubai Rugby Sevens day two Your View Should the UAE have a nationwide smoking ban?Do you think the new system for driving licences will make life easier?What sports and events would you like to see at the Capital City stadium?Have you noticed an improvement in traffic on Sheikh Zayed Road?Has organising your Haj trip been difficult? Most popular stories Most read Most e-mailed Nakheel deadline a tale of three cities Full Red Line service in three months IMF cites Dubai debt in trimming its outlook Live blog: Dubai Rugby Sevens day two Freed sailors say they were not mistreated Massive clean-up follows holiday celebrations Clinton looks for Europe's support in Afghanistan Nepal holds cabinet meeting on Everest Suicide bomber kills Somali ministers Club World Cup advice: Arrive early, and take the bus The facts behind the Dubai World story Dubai World might still pay sukuk by deadline Real recognise real Central Bank prepares to limit Dubai fallout Emirates Palace goes for a record Central Bank to back country's lenders Dubai firm benefits from Ajman stalling Dubai World in talks on Nakheel sukuk and asset sale Markets edge back with eye on Dubai Workers switch to electronic payment var countries=new ddtabcontent("countrytabs") countries.setpersist(true) countries.setselectedClassTarget("link") //"link" or "linkparent" countries.init() Products & Services Your View e-polls e-Paper RSS Feeds Home UAE World Business Sport About us Contact us Terms & Conditions FAQ Site map
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