After six months of political drama and wrangling, Lebanon has a government. Congratulations poured in from abroad as soon as cabinet proposals by the prime minister, Saad Hariri, won overwhelming parliamentary support.On a delicate visit to Washington, the president, Michel Suleiman, felt confident enough to promise a sceptical audience of US officials and Lebanese Americans that this national unity government would usher in a period of stability.
In fact, what happened between the elections in June and the formation of the new government was the political weakening of the March 14 coalition that nominally leads the cabinet, and the erosion of its tenets; from delineating borders with Syria to bringing suspects in the assassinations of anti-Syrian figures before an international tribunal. Mr Suleiman did not even raise these issues in his discussions in Washington.
The reasons for this collapse will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of those who hoped this tiny and volatile country could establish full sovereignty and authority over its own territory and people, and worked so hard towards that end.The Lebanese, people and politicians alike, have a tendency to see conspiratorial foreign hands driving their politics. This time, they are right; domestic realignments have mirrored and followed, rather than preceded, regional shifts.
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After Hizbollah took over Beirut in May 2008 and the international community brokered an interim power-sharing agreement known as the Doha accord, many predicted that the humiliated March 14 alliance would crumble. The opposite happened, largely because the coalition's values have broader appeal than its mostly incompetent and inconsistent leaders. And since it won the elections, there has been no perceptible weakening of March 14 on the ground.
In the spirit of reconciliation, Mr Hariri adhered to the Doha principles while forming his cabinet, but this meant he could not translate his electoral victory into tangible political gains, frustrating his constituency. Critics will say that his need to compromise reflects the consensual nature of Lebanese politics, but there is little consensus over Hizbollah's weapons and use of force. Mr Hariri also had to manage the usual political enmities and petty contests for cabinet portfolios, but this alone fails to explain the magnitude of the alliance's decline.
The immediate reason is to be found in policy reversals by two of its major backers, France and Saudi Arabia. The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, initiated a spectacular rapprochement with Syria that remains puzzling. Initially he said he would not compromise on Lebanese interests, but ended up satisfying himself with a superficial exchange of ambassadors while dropping the more substantive issues of borders, prisoners and Syrian interference. European officials admit that Paris gave Syria all it had to offer (international embrace and opening to the European Union), leaving it with scant leverage.
An even more lethal hit came from Saudi Arabia. Calculating that the cost
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document.write(''); Lebanese unity? Not at the point of a Hizbollah gun
Emile Hokayem, political editor
Last Updated: December 17. 2009 12:43AM UAE / December 16. 2009 8:43PM GMT
After six months of political drama and wrangling, Lebanon has a government. Congratulations poured in from abroad as soon as cabinet proposals by the prime minister, Saad Hariri, won overwhelming parliamentary support.On a delicate visit to Washington, the president, Michel Suleiman, felt confident enough to promise a sceptical audience of US officials and Lebanese Americans that this national unity government would usher in a period of stability.
In fact, what happened between the elections in June and the formation of the new government was the political weakening of the March 14 coalition that nominally leads the cabinet, and the erosion of its tenets; from delineating borders with Syria to bringing suspects in the assassinations of anti-Syrian figures before an international tribunal. Mr Suleiman did not even raise these issues in his discussions in Washington.
The reasons for this collapse will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of those who hoped this tiny and volatile country could establish full sovereignty and authority over its own territory and people, and worked so hard towards that end.The Lebanese, people and politicians alike, have a tendency to see conspiratorial foreign hands driving their politics. This time, they are right; domestic realignments have mirrored and followed, rather than preceded, regional shifts.
document.write('');
After Hizbollah took over Beirut in May 2008 and the international community brokered an interim power-sharing agreement known as the Doha accord, many predicted that the humiliated March 14 alliance would crumble. The opposite happened, largely because the coalition's values have broader appeal than its mostly incompetent and inconsistent leaders. And since it won the elections, there has been no perceptible weakening of March 14 on the ground.
In the spirit of reconciliation, Mr Hariri adhered to the Doha principles while forming his cabinet, but this meant he could not translate his electoral victory into tangible political gains, frustrating his constituency. Critics will say that his need to compromise reflects the consensual nature of Lebanese politics, but there is little consensus over Hizbollah's weapons and use of force. Mr Hariri also had to manage the usual political enmities and petty contests for cabinet portfolios, but this alone fails to explain the magnitude of the alliance's decline.
The immediate reason is to be found in policy reversals by two of its major backers, France and Saudi Arabia. The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, initiated a spectacular rapprochement with Syria that remains puzzling. Initially he said he would not compromise on Lebanese interests, but ended up satisfying himself with a superficial exchange of ambassadors while dropping the more substantive issues of borders, prisoners and Syrian interference. European officials admit that Paris gave Syria all it had to offer (international embrace and opening to the European Union), leaving it with scant leverage.
An even more lethal hit came from Saudi Arabia. Calculating that the costs of confrontation in Lebanon were too high for too small a return, and increasingly focused on Iran, Iraq and Yemen, Riyadh engineered a detente with Damascus that revived the quid pro quo of the 1990s: Mr Hariri, its protege, would have formal control of the government and control economic policy, while Hizbollah, Syria's ally, would maintain its armed status, thus determining foreign and security policy. It is no surprise that the formation of the government followed a meeting between the Syrian president and the Saudi monarch; nor that Mr Hariri was in Riyadh last weekend and will soon visit Damascus.
Critically, the US administration did little to maintain international unity on Lebanon, though the substance of its policy did not change. This consensus was March 14's most valued instrument of protection and leverage, so it saw these developments as a complete let-down, best illustrated by the turnaround of the Druze leader and former March 14 stalwart Walid Jumblatt.The dismantlement of the international regime that guaranteed Lebanese sovereignty is now almost complete. UN resolution 1559, which demanded the disarmament of all armed groups, is now contradicted by the ministerial statement recognising Hizbollah's right to resist. Resolution 1701, which imposed a security regime at the border with Israel, is breached daily by Israeli overflights and by massive Hizbollah resupply and positioning of weaponry in nominally UN-controlled territory. Syria, emboldened by its improving fortunes, has turned the tables on its Lebanese adversaries by sanctioning a ludicrous court case in Damascus; the former security chief Jamil al Sayyed has filed a lawsuit in connection with his detention for four years over the assassination of the Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.
Normalisation of relations between Syria and Lebanon has not progressed, but the road to Damascus is again crowded with Lebanese supplicants. The sins of some will be forgotten, others will go through purgatory, and the few who stand fast will again fear for their freedom and lives. Plainly put, this is a return to the 1990s politics of intimidation.The rush to reconcile with Hizbollah should not be misread: it is a consequence of the Shia militia's proven ability to intimidate and coerce. Its recent manifesto was heralded by western analysts as proof that it was embracing its Lebanese identity and discarding its revolutionary slogans; but while it is true that Hizbollah no longer calls for an Islamist state in Lebanon, it has replaced that delusion with an even grander one in which state and society serve its muqawama, or resistance.
Lebanon has bought itself a few months of respite, but the clashing agendas of Israel and Hizbollah and its patrons will soon expose the cost of Lebanese lack of perseverance and international complacency. It is a safe bet that it will be a devastating one.ehokayem@thenational.ae
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