While the surge of 30,000 United States troops in Afghanistan can only lead to an escalation of fighting, a major problem looms across the border, where al-Qaeda plans a new front against the Pakistan army - a move that will further dry up Islamabad's vital support for the war in Afghanistan.
At the same time, the American-supported coalition government of liberal and secular parties in Pakistan faces a serious political and constitutional crisis, while the armed forces are stalled in their campaign against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the tribal areas.
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