The Christmas truce will be a brief one this year. There will be time for church, for drawing strength from family, for bracing walks across the frosted Oxfordshire fields, precious moments of calm snatched away from the telephone and the incessant clamour of the BlackBerry. For a few days, David Cameron will escape the hourly demands of Opposition and be left to contemplate the decisive months ahead, and what victory will mean for him.
For all that his colleagues mutter about narrowing polls and a hung Parliament, Mr Cameron believes he will be the next prime minister. Not in a presumptuous way: he is too driven by nature to be complacent. But where a nervous Tony Blair held the prospect at arm's length even as the results came in on election night, the Conservative leader has reconciled himself to the prospect of power. His thoughts are now turned to how he will exercise it.
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That Mr Cameron is even thinking about what life will be like for him in Downing Street would appear to contradict Labour's golden rule about the perils of complacency in politics. Yet he takes nothing for granted; rather, he believes that there is not a moment to lose. Such is the challenge facing the country that he would be failing in his duty if he did not do everything possible to ready himself mentally and physically for the demands the voters may make of him.
Much has been said about the unprecedented work of preparation being done by the team led by Francis Maude, Nicholas Boles and Oliver Letwin. If the voters give them the nod, the Tories will enter government armed not just with policies – the last of the 20 green papers that will form the manifesto are due within weeks – but with an 18-month implementation plan. It will centre on a first Queen's Speech packed with the structural changes to the way Britain works, which they know have to be done early and quickly if they are to be done at all.
But as he hunkers down in Witney for a moment's reprieve, it is worth considering how Mr Cameron is steeling himself for what lies ahead. Those who know him report a change in his demeanour, an imperceptible shift in how he carries himself and how those around him respond. He is more solicitous of people, for example, less prone to the imperiousness that has been
By Benedict Brogan Published: 6:20PM GMT 23 Dec 2009
Comments 64 | Comment on this article
The Christmas truce will be a brief one this year. There will be time for church, for drawing strength from family, for bracing walks across the frosted Oxfordshire fields, precious moments of calm snatched away from the telephone and the incessant clamour of the BlackBerry. For a few days, David Cameron will escape the hourly demands of Opposition and be left to contemplate the decisive months ahead, and what victory will mean for him.
For all that his colleagues mutter about narrowing polls and a hung Parliament, Mr Cameron believes he will be the next prime minister. Not in a presumptuous way: he is too driven by nature to be complacent. But where a nervous Tony Blair held the prospect at arm's length even as the results came in on election night, the Conservative leader has reconciled himself to the prospect of power. His thoughts are now turned to how he will exercise it.
That Mr Cameron is even thinking about what life will be like for him in Downing Street would appear to contradict Labour's golden rule about the perils of complacency in politics. Yet he takes nothing for granted; rather, he believes that there is not a moment to lose. Such is the challenge facing the country that he would be failing in his duty if he did not do everything possible to ready himself mentally and physically for the demands the voters may make of him.
Much has been said about the unprecedented work of preparation being done by the team led by Francis Maude, Nicholas Boles and Oliver Letwin. If the voters give them the nod, the Tories will enter government armed not just with policies – the last of the 20 green papers that will form the manifesto are due within weeks – but with an 18-month implementation plan. It will centre on a first Queen's Speech packed with the structural changes to the way Britain works, which they know have to be done early and quickly if they are to be done at all.
But as he hunkers down in Witney for a moment's reprieve, it is worth considering how Mr Cameron is steeling himself for what lies ahead. Those who know him report a change in his demeanour, an imperceptible shift in how he carries himself and how those around him respond. He is more solicitous of people, for example, less prone to the imperiousness that has been one of his weaknesses.
He has been studying how past prime ministers approached the job in the early stages. He does not want to repeat the well-rehearsed mistakes of Mr Blair, who now acknowledges that he threw away his first term trying to work out what he wanted to do. Mr Cameron is rereading The Downing Street Years, the second volume of Margaret Thatcher's memoirs. He is taken by the mistakes her government made in its first two years, including giving the police a 20 per cent pay rise, which appeared to pander to special interests.
Part of his strategy for avoiding the confusion and drift that could follow victory has been to clear the decks of unfinished business and close off the flanks that remain exposed. His promise to legislate to make MPs and peers pay tax in the UK was a way of shutting down the debate about wealthy donors with complicated affairs. Privately, he would prefer it if Lord Ashcroft clarified his position voluntarily, but he points out that the billionaire peer has never tried to influence policy (others reply that he is doing just that by taking such a dominant role in shaping and mentoring the next intake of MPs).
There may be other such tests before polling day. For example, will Mr Cameron turn his face away from high-living money men such as David Ross, who make the wrong kind of headlines?
The Conservative leader has stayed ahead of the pack on expenses. Behind the scenes, those Tory MPs with questionable claims who have not stood down voluntarily are being "helped" with their decision to go quietly. Julie Kirkbride's attempt to cling on was killed off in part by Mr Cameron. On Europe, he has been less successful. He recognises that the party's softening in the polls is in part due to his compromise on the Lisbon Treaty. He knows that many Conservatives are disappointed. We can expect efforts to soothe them in the New Year, though whether that will be enough to win back the defectors to Ukip who make the difference in the marginals is unclear.
The current talk is about the Tories' plans to "hit the ground running" in January. Certainly, they want to go great guns from the New Year weekend onwards. They have plenty of money to spend. There will be announcements, posters, internet campaigns, viral videos, and saturation television coverage. A bumper book of campaign literature has been distributed to all candidates. Chunks of the draft manifesto are waiting to be unveiled in coming weeks, probably in phases. Although most of it has been trailed before, Team Cameron will keep trying to interest us in the detail. "We have always felt that we have the kind of innovative policies that have not been given the kind of focus we think they deserve," one aide says. Others believe there is no point. Voters will decide on instinct, they say, informed by what one calls the Tories' "aroma": do these guys smell any good?
In the end, however, it is the voters' judgment of Mr Cameron himself that will decide it. Not "Is he a nice guy?", but "Is he up to the job?" At every difficult moment, he has risen to the occasion. He is best under pressure – the speech without notes that helped see off Gordon Brown's plan for an early election in 2007; his swift response to the expenses crisis. If he wins, the pressure can only grow. His core strategy is about inner core: he has stepped up his fitness regime to build his stamina, dropped the cigarettes and hopes he can rely on seven hours' sleep (he knows he is no Lady Thatcher in this regard). His family, who have grown even closer after the loss of Ivan, will be his rock in No 10 even if his wife Samantha – arguably his most powerful asset – plans to keep on working.
Mr Cameron's inner team is settled in what he calls a diamond formation, with Andy Coulson, the Essex man, on the right wing, his ideas guru Steve Hilton providing the empathy and George Osborne providing the unshakeable will to win. Mr Cameron's own position is unclear: perhaps as a kind of defensive player-manager, setting the strategic direction for the whole.
Even since 1997, and certainly since 1979, the political environment has changed beyond recognition. A new Tory government would have to contend with a relentless 24-hour media cycle at a time of economic turmoil and fiscal retrenchment. Couple that with a small majority and it is no wonder that one of the things Mr Cameron is pondering how to stay ahead of the ravening pack. "You guys are going to kill me," he tells journalists. "I have to come out firing on day one."
For him, the first days and months will be a race against time to get things done before the crowds turn on him. Those are the thoughts that follow him this weekend as he prepares to call his party unto the breach.
Comments: 64
It is nice to hear that Dave is preparing for the role of Prime Minister. It is a shame he has none of the qualities required to hold the post. Brown gets a lot of stick from your readers but in their more sober moments do they really believe that Dave could have coped with the titanic crisis that faced us a year ago. We have weathered the storm and are now recovering. Outside of No 10 and No 11 only the Governor of Bank of England and Vince Cable had any grip on events. Can anyone remember anything that Dave or Osborne said that contributed to tackling the country's difficulties? Oh yes, Dave rubbished the UK's credit worthiness at home and abroad. Nice one Dave.
How can some people be so articulate-yet so apparently imperceptive. Don't you get it? The markets will decide what happens here-not some crook-in-a-suit at Westminster. Has anyone ever watched a small boat being buffeted by large waves,and about to founder? The swell hits the hull,then retreats-there is a momentary lull before the next destabilizes the boat even more,and then the lull,and then the next large wave catches that boat just as it enters its most critical angle...and then its over-capsized. That's your Britain for you. Just look at all the information available out there-and digest how rapidly things are deteriorating behind the scenes,not what you read in the press,or the state mouthpiece BBC.The nations credit card is being eyed with a view to being cut up. What I find completely beyond belief,is that this Brown,Mandleson and co are able without any restriction or personal liability,to literally trash this nations economy purely in an attempt to save themselves at the next general election.It is not some small issue of party politics,or tinkering a few figures in ones own favour-this is deadly serious stuff. This is tantamount to criminal irresponsibility-why is the only penalty these people face removal from office (and with pensions intact) Why,why why? How the hell did these individuals manage to get away with gross manipulation for personal gain, of the nations economy,as if it were a mere game of monopoly amongst friends? This is nothing but a scorched earth policy in real time. Complete immunity from prosecution,complete immunity from any sort of personal liability...a trashed nation facing tax hikes,unemployment,misery....andin eighteen months time this Brown will be doing the circuits, raking the cash in for his lectures on 'how I saved the world' and nice gold plated pension in the bag. I would put them all against a wall.
Happy Christmas to one and all -I am excited about the forthcoming election , I have faith in Cameron and I truly believe he will be a great PM, unpopular initially, but I think he has it in him to turn this country around
David cameron will win. The electorate finally realise that more of Brown's socialism & new Labour spin will mean the end of the UK as a viable economic unit. I canvass regularly on doorstps and find almost universal flight from Labour. Only benefit claimants & the more apprehensive state employees remain uncertain. BB has finally got it.
He should make sure he isn't jumping the gun ...
It is far from a foregone conclusion that The Tories will will the next election. On the contrary, most of the people I speak to all depressingly admit that due to Labour's bribery of the client state and the deft use of the class war card, that the Tories may in fact lose. But Cameron only has himself to blame : Osborne is not cedible and should have been moved sideways after his yacht debacle, Cameron should not have caved in on the Lisbon Treaty (its a matter of principal stupid), and failure to come up with anything credible as a policy, means that the Tory vote will be split with UKIP. Cameron needs to crystalise what he stands for, rather than shilly shallying over what he thinks the electorate want to hear. And Please - stop dithering about not wishing to offend a portion of the elctorate - stand up for what you believe and represent, and show some backbone. UK is at a precipice and most of my friends are already drawing up plans to leave the UK if Labour win.
Brogan was so fearless in exposing petty expenses claims (trouser presses, adult DVDs). So where is his courage and integrity in dealing with the hugely more important Ashcroft question? He writes: "[Cameron] points out that the billionaire peer has never tried to influence policy ..." Oh dear oh dear. The billionaire peer, whose tax status has not been made transparent, has allegedly been providing massive sums that may well influence the pattern of voting in marginal seats and affect the democratic process in this country. It seems that when courageous investigative journalism is called for to unearth the truth about Ashcroft, Brogan is found wanting. After all, it's so much easier just to copy data from a CD and ride the public wave of indignation.
People in this country need to take an honest appraisal of the EUROPEAN UNION. Maybe it was misrepresented at the point of sale...but thats always the case even when buying a new car. No car or machine is perfect. Britain has adjusted to the EU and is well-known for over-stating its position and getting its OPT-OUTS again and again. BUT there comes a time when the world in turmoil needs a collective bargaining system in politics to maintain equilibrium and continuity. Otherwise chaos ensues. People in Germany and France have fears about Europe but in a different sense. They live next door to some real head-cases. Britain can pretend its off the coast of New England...but that wont work. Europe needs Britain to be more realistic and not getting itself confused about its powerbase....or the limits of its power. The Empire days are over!!!
Mike Williams in Bangkok.Our leaders have failed us someone has tomake hard choices and that is why the core voters are not going to vote for Cameron.A hung parlaiment for a year a new leader and a new maifesto.At times like these a coalition might be a good idea.
How interesting that in a solidly Conservative-supporting newspaper, about half the comments here do not like and quite possible won't vote for DC despite having probably the worst current government in our country's history. I personally am another one who will vote for UKIP because, frankly, someone needs to take a stand against the authoritarianism of Brussels, immigration and the AGW brigade. If, as a result, Labour regains some sort of power from this that I for one will not be that annoyed. Why - because then it will start to dawn on idiots like Cameron that unless he re-positions his party against the above he will NEVER get elected. Then and only then will we get REAL CHANGE (phoenix, ashes etc.). He will resign and perhaps a much stronger, conviction politician will step forward to lead this country in the right direction. Vote UKIP for the prospect of REAL CHANGE otherwise you'll just get MORE OF THE SAME. By voting UKIP you WILL force the Conservatives to adopt their policies.
A new Prime Minister CAMERON must get Britain believing in itself again. Its had the stuffing knocked out it by BLAIR-BROWN age of tyranny. Appointing men of vision in government who understand Britain is an essential part of the Conservative plan. We dont want another dictatorship AGAIN. Unfortunatley CAMERON has been dealt a rotten hand of cards by BROWNS with his deck of spades...like OBAMA after BUSH. As NAPOLEON stated dont give me good Generals.....just give me lucky ones.
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