Will the world's leading powers act in a more united way on Iran's nuclear programme than they have so far? The answer is about to become clearer.It is a key test of US policy to engage China as a long-term partner on major international issues, including many that shape stability in Asia. From the early days of his administration, Barack Obama has lobbied Chinese leaders over Iran. He has urged them to join the US and its allies in putting increased pressure on Tehran if it continues to defy UN Security Council resolutions by refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment programme.
Israel claims that Iran is dangerously close to the point where it may be able to start making nuclear weapons and eventually fit them to the nose cones of missiles that can strike Israel and parts of Europe.While US officials say there is still time to avert a crisis, they have told China that if Tehran continues to reject calls for a negotiated solution it may not be possible to stop Israel from bombing nuclear targets in Iran, triggering turmoil in the Gulf, sending oil prices sharply higher and threatening oil supplies to China and other big energy importers in Asia.
They have also warned China that if Iran follows North Korea and develops nuclear weapons it will become more difficult to prevent a nuclear breakout in Asia as countries without nukes, such as Japan, seek them for national security. If this is a realistic scenario, it would cause deep concern in Beijing; the prevention of nuclear proliferation in the region is a key Chinese concern.Mr Obama has referred publicly to a nuclear-free Iran as “a core national interest” of the US, deliberately using terminology that Beijing employs on issues it regards as a vital, such as Taiwan and Tibet. Iran was a top item in Mr Obama's talks with the Chinese president Hu Jintao at the UN in September. It was prominent again at their summit in Beijing last month.
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So when China and Russia voted with the US and European nations last month to censure Iran for failing to declare a second secret enrichment facility, it was welcomed in Washington as a significant development. The overwhelming vote against Tehran at the International Atomic Energy Agency could pave the way for new UN penalties in the new year.US and European members of the Security Council have begun drafting a set of tougher sanctions against Iran if it fails by the end of the year to carry through on a tentative deal struck in October. This called for Tehran to ship most of its declared stockpile of low-enriched uranium out of the country in exchange for fuel to run a research reactor producing material for medical purposes. The deal was seen as an essential step towards building confidence in Iran's claim that its nuclear programme is solely for peaceful purposes.
Before, China and Russia voted with the other permanent members of the Security Council – Britain, France and the US – to impose three sets of sanctions on Iran, each marginally tougher than the last. However, with their veto power over Security Council decisions, they ensured that the sanctions did not include general trade, conventional weapons, civil nuclear technology or
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document.write(''); Iran beware: don’t bank on China as your friend for ever
Michael Richardson
Last Updated: December 23. 2009 7:56PM UAE / December 23. 2009 3:56PM GMT
Will the world's leading powers act in a more united way on Iran's nuclear programme than they have so far? The answer is about to become clearer.It is a key test of US policy to engage China as a long-term partner on major international issues, including many that shape stability in Asia. From the early days of his administration, Barack Obama has lobbied Chinese leaders over Iran. He has urged them to join the US and its allies in putting increased pressure on Tehran if it continues to defy UN Security Council resolutions by refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment programme.
Israel claims that Iran is dangerously close to the point where it may be able to start making nuclear weapons and eventually fit them to the nose cones of missiles that can strike Israel and parts of Europe.While US officials say there is still time to avert a crisis, they have told China that if Tehran continues to reject calls for a negotiated solution it may not be possible to stop Israel from bombing nuclear targets in Iran, triggering turmoil in the Gulf, sending oil prices sharply higher and threatening oil supplies to China and other big energy importers in Asia.
They have also warned China that if Iran follows North Korea and develops nuclear weapons it will become more difficult to prevent a nuclear breakout in Asia as countries without nukes, such as Japan, seek them for national security. If this is a realistic scenario, it would cause deep concern in Beijing; the prevention of nuclear proliferation in the region is a key Chinese concern.Mr Obama has referred publicly to a nuclear-free Iran as “a core national interest” of the US, deliberately using terminology that Beijing employs on issues it regards as a vital, such as Taiwan and Tibet. Iran was a top item in Mr Obama's talks with the Chinese president Hu Jintao at the UN in September. It was prominent again at their summit in Beijing last month.
document.write('');
So when China and Russia voted with the US and European nations last month to censure Iran for failing to declare a second secret enrichment facility, it was welcomed in Washington as a significant development. The overwhelming vote against Tehran at the International Atomic Energy Agency could pave the way for new UN penalties in the new year.US and European members of the Security Council have begun drafting a set of tougher sanctions against Iran if it fails by the end of the year to carry through on a tentative deal struck in October. This called for Tehran to ship most of its declared stockpile of low-enriched uranium out of the country in exchange for fuel to run a research reactor producing material for medical purposes. The deal was seen as an essential step towards building confidence in Iran's claim that its nuclear programme is solely for peaceful purposes.
Before, China and Russia voted with the other permanent members of the Security Council – Britain, France and the US – to impose three sets of sanctions on Iran, each marginally tougher than the last. However, with their veto power over Security Council decisions, they ensured that the sanctions did not include general trade, conventional weapons, civil nuclear technology or energy, areas in which one or both are deeply involved in Iran.
The question now is, will China and Russia agree to extend UN sanctions and, if so, into which sectors?The US House of Representatives is already pointing one way Washington plans to go. It approved legislation this month that would impose penalties on foreign companies providing petrol to Iran. While Iran has the world's third-largest oil reserves, it imports about 40 per cent of its petrol because of a lack of refining capacity. Oil traders say that some of the firms involved in this business are Chinese.
In the past, China has worked in unison with Russia to limit multilateral sanctions on Iran. However, Russia has recently indicated that it might be prepared to go along with more stringent UN measures. This would leave Beijing in an exposed position. It is wary of sanctions, arguing that they are counter-productive. It also has a huge appetite for Iranian oil and natural gas, seeing them as an important future source of the energy imports China must have if its economy is to continue growing strongly.
China's state-owned energy companies plan to invest well over $100 billion in Iran's energy sector. Just last month, one of these firms, Sinopec, signed the latest memorandum of understanding for an additional $6.5 billion to expand Iran's oil refining capacity. However, few of these investments have yet resulted in actual construction.In 2008, Iran accounted for nearly 12 per cent of China's crude-oil imports and it is currently the second-biggest supplier to China after Saudi Arabia.
In an effort to persuade Beijing to join the next round of UN sanctions, the US has been encouraging Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states apprehensive at Iran's nuclear ambitions and growing power in the region to offer more long-term supplies of oil and gas to China. Officials from the UAE have said they plan to increase oil exports to China, and Saudi Arabia is reported to have made a similar offer.
Qatar is becoming a major gas supplier to China. Beijing announced last month that it was planning to buy another two million tonnes a year of liquified natural gas from Qatar, bringing its annual LNG purchase from the gas-rich country to seven million tonnes.As Beijing assesses its position, it may find that a renegade Iran is an obstacle to other more important Chinese interests, including energy security and nuclear proliferation.
Micheal Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore
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