Nuclear Arms and the Pragmatists

After more than a decade in the doldrums, nuclear arms control could make a comeback this year with a thorough review of the size, structure and mission of US nuclear forces, a new Russia-US strategic treaty, a nuclear summit in Washington in April and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference in May. A compelling roadmap for all four has been provided by the international commission on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, chaired by former foreign ministers Gareth Evans of Australia and Yoriko Kawaguchi of Japan and including Brajesh Mishra from India.

The commission faced two hurdles even before its work was completed. First, Australia and Japan are long-standing allies that have sheltered under the US nuclear umbrella. Second, between the commission's setting up in mid-2008 and the publication of its report on December 15, 2009, the nuclear agenda had been dramatically transformed with US president Barack Obama's commitment to nuclear abolition. The first risk was one of credibility, the second of irrelevance as the commission's deliberations were overtaken by events in the real world.