‘We can’t go on like this,” warn the new Conservative posters enlivened by an airbrushed portrait of David Cameron that went up on Monday last week. Yet in politics “we” can and do. The latest conspiracy to oust Gordon Brown illustrates that point magnificently.
“It’s like the plot to kill Hitler,” observes an old Labour hand. When it was clear to all that the war was lost, it was also clear that the Führer had to go. All attempts failed by unhappy mischance. Bombs were moved under tables, divisions failed to leave the barracks and the generals dithered, torn between loyalty to their leader and their homeland.
As Conservative victory looms, the von Stauffenbergs of Labour high command likewise wriggle and twist with what we might over-charitably call their consciences. Successful conspiracies require unity and a fierce desire to attain the objective. As ever, the grumblers against Brown in government felt they had more to lose than his enemies without. David Miliband, the foreign secretary, had most to lose of all.
One of the most gently bred members of government put it to me of Patricia Hewitt’s and Geoff Hoon’s efforts last week: “It’s a bollocks.” A bollocks perhaps it was, but the motive for two middle-ranking politicians with nothing left to lose and an active dislike of Brown was pretty clear, however much they misjudged the willingness of cabinet heavyweights to move with them.
An opinion poll published in The Sun on Monday revealed that Labour would gain “only” five percentage points if it changed the man at the top. Think about that “only”. The Tory lead at the beginning of the week was “only” 9%, too. Under the current distribution of votes to seats, a 5% swing to Labour would have meant not only hung parliament territory but even the dim prospect of victory by dint of the number of MPs returned, if not by share of the popular vote. The prime minister’s pollsters know all about his abysmal personal ratings, too, although they haven’t exactly gone out of their way to thrust the evidence under their employer’s nose. Rationally, a coup made sense.
Yet who needs cool reason as a spur to action? Sometimes hot hatred and devilry take over. There was a deranged quality to the attacks on the blameless John Major by many Tories before he lost the 1997 election. In Brown’s case, his treachery to Tony Blair means he can call on no reserves of loyalty at all. Indeed, for some conspirators perhaps, the fear of the prime minister halting Cameron’s advance may trump the fear of losing decisively. In the event of a hung parliament, they might be stuck with their leader.
An immovable object like the prime minister needs at the very least to confront an irresistible force. As one devoted supporter of the Blessed Tony who nevertheless opposed the coup put it: “Blairite politics were never about coups, Brownite politics were.” In fact, only one of his enemies matches the prime minister for sheer dogged determination — Charles Clarke, a mover behind every plot against No 10 from the moment Brown seized the crown. The former home secretary’s enthusiasm for going over the top and charging No 10’s guns isn’t universally shared. Blairites in government see things differently. “What isn’t needed at this point in the war is another futile gesture,” says one. Hewitt and Hoon acted too close to the election for comfort.
Conventional wisdom has it that a triumvirate of Harriet Harman, Alistair Darling and Jack Straw has been bought off by a series of concessions from the prime minister (which No 10 denies). Ed Balls, the schools secretary, will be put back in his box, Harman will get more airtime, Brown will become more collegiate in cabinet and will be more respectful of his chancellor’s independence. Indeed, Darling trumpeted a tougher line on cuts in his Times interview yesterday. But I seem to remember the same stuff was said after the last plot. Perhaps the pigs will grow wings this time.
Conventional wisdom also argues that the prospects of Miliband have suffered because the devious “plotter” had “bottled it” by failing to join the coup. The mantle of Michael Portillo, the former Conservative pretender, has been placed on the foreign secretary’s shoulders. Portillo was haunted by the charge that he had made preparations to challenge Major, the sitting prime minister, but “bottled it” at the last moment — although whether that cost him the leadership is questionable, too. Portillo lost his best chance to lead his party because he lost his seat in the 1997 general election. Thereafter he advocated a radical change of political style that his party furiously rejected until three successive defeats convinced them (partly) of the error of their ways.
Did Miliband make a mistake by issuing a belated and tepid endorsement of the prime minister after the dissidents had made their move? “He can’t be both a plotter and a bottler at the same time, now can he?” points out a former cabinet minister. Meanwhile, No 10 was officially content with his published statement, as well it might be, since his senior colleagues were just as unenthusiastic in their professions of loyalty. Miliband, on this occasion, didn’t bottle or plot. He calculated the coup was neither in his interests nor those of his party. In his eyes, as with most politicians of course, those amount to the same thing.
The foreign secretary wouldn’t want to rock the boat so close to an election. There is no mileage in being blamed for electoral defeat. The honour for that must go to those truly responsible — Brown and Balls, his anointed successor. Miliband wants to contain the damage.
If the Tories win a Commons majority above 50, the likelihood is that the Labour party will revert to type, go mad, go left and become unelectable as in the bad old days of Michael Foot. “An electoral disaster will not help the course of Blairite politics,” says an influential Miliband backer. “We need a leader who can last the course for at least five years and put in place a reform of the party structures and machine. We need a modern party to recover if we lose.” Alas, he rather spoils the optimistic effect by admitting: “We have elected only one sensible person in the past 30 years — Tony Blair.”
If Miliband had fallen on his sword, who would have followed? Unless senior figures like Darling, Harman and Straw had acted in unison, Brown would have sat out any other resignations. Lord Mandelson, for reasons of personal history with Brown, was not prepared to conspire. You can imagine No 10’s gleeful reaction to a solitary Miliband departure. Press briefings would have told us that “David was always a bit semi-detached ... only interested in foreign affairs anyway ... now the air is cleared, the cabinet and the parliamentary party can march united to election victory etc, etc”. Mandelson would speak sadly on the Today programme of “David’s enormous talents and valued past service: I am sure he has a great future ahead of him in the Labour party — one distant day”.
Miliband’s mistake was in the past: it was his earlier tentative threat to challenge Brown that haunts him. He ducked a contest and was left famously holding a banana. Since then he has been recovering ground. At the last party conference he was relegated by No 10 to a graveyard slot but emerged the stronger after his robust attack on Tory alliances with exotic eastern European parties. Brown recognised the threat: he tried to get the foreign secretary out of the way by offering him the job of European foreign policy supremo in Brussels, for which he was a shoo-in. Yet Miliband opted to fight his corner at home, proof that he regards his chances in any leadership contest as strong.
As Brown’s war threatens to come to a dismal end, so a new campaign begins. The battle in the bunker for the succession is already looming.
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