In the autumn of 2004, on the threshold of the presidential election in Ukraine, an aide to then-President Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Medvedchuk, declared in an interview that he had no doubt of a victory for Viktor Yanukovych, the candidate supported by the country’s power base. Reminded that polls predicted victory for the oppositionist democrat Viktor Yushchenko, the functionary answered curtly, “Yushchenko will not be the president.”
Such certainty gave rise to criticism from representatives of the democratic camp, who accused Medvedchuk of preparing a program of electoral fraud on behalf of Yanukovych.
What happened next is well-known. The November 2004 elections were marred by unprecedented fraud, and Yanukovych was declared the winner, sparking huge protests that came to be known as the Orange Revolution. A repeat of the election resulted in a victory for Yushchenko. For many people in Ukraine and around the world Yushchenko was a model democratic leader, capable of leading to power the country’s democratic forces.
Today, though, it is obvious that those hopes were premature. The romance of the Orange Revolution cooled with each month; the Ukrainian democrats could not work together; promised structural reforms remained nothing more than a nice idea. But probably the greatest disappointment for the people who stood in those vigils on Kyiv’s Maidan Nezalezhnosti, Independence Square, is Yushchenko himself. The model democrat has become an unpopular autocrat. Increasingly, observers say that Yushchenko grew to be like his predecessor, the anti-democratic Kuchma.
Five years ago the Ukrainian opposition proved what sociologists had been seeing in polls: that people wanted change. In 2004 Kuchma had record low trustworthiness ratings: 7 percent of those polled trusted him, while 59 percent did not. Today Yushchenko has set a new record. Nine percent say they trust him, compared with 84 percent who do not. Still, Yushchenko insists on being on the ballot this weekend. He vows that he will win, saying the polls are not to be trusted.
Suggestions that his time in power has come to an end are met with furious attacks, even during public events. On a live, pre-election talk show, respected journalist Valery Kalnysh asked the president if he had considered getting out of the race and devoting his energies to ensuring that elections are fair. Instead of answering, Yushchenko insulted his interlocutor, declaring him an “unprofessional journalist” who “has no right to work in the media if he asks the president such questions.”
Kalnysh later said, “I was shocked by such a nervous reaction. The president should be ready to answer any questions. If he was confident, he could explain why he intends to continue campaigning.”
In 2004 the “orange opposition” criticized the imperious Yanukovych for lying and manipulating data during the campaign. Today the opposition levels the same charges at the current president. For example, Yushchenko has said that four candidates have promised to step aside in his favor. The politicians in question deny it. “The president has told a lie, once again. We have not had and will not have negotiations with him and his staff,” said candidate Anatoly Gritsenko, minister of defense from 2005 to 2008. Another candidate, Oleg Tyagnybok, leader of the ultra-right Svoboda (Freedom) Party, said, “Yushchenko’s statements are inaccurate. He knows perfectly well that I haven’t met with him since 2005. And neither I nor my colleagues are conducting any negotiations with Yushchenko’s campaign.”
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