Rocky Road for U.S-China Relations

In 2010, we will discover neither has the power to keep US-China relations on track. That is bad news for those who believe their co-operation is essential for reviving the global economy, meeting the challenge of climate change, containing threats of nuclear proliferation and managing a host of other problems without borders. It is also bad news for the United States and China.

Ten is the number to watch: the US's 10 per cent unemployment and China's potential 10 per cent GDP growth are set to collide like weather fronts generating a storm. American populism will meet Chinese pride. And the fevered political climate created by US mid-term elections means the world's most important bilateral relationship is headed for real turbulence this year.