For Russia, the past decade started out on an optimistic note. The country was emerging from a severe financial crisis and the political upheavals of the ’90s. Industry and agriculture were rapidly recovering and the financial system had been rescued and strengthened. Business attracted millions of people to apply their efforts and talents. The institutions of state had begun to work more reliably and the structures of a real civil society had begun to form.
Today, many people recall with sadness that Russia once had a real, working parliament, where social and business interests engaged in dialogue, where compromises were sought and found. They recall how the country’s judicial system had begun to feel its independence, and how they discovered that they had a civic role to play in the places they called home. There was hope that people in Russia would become active participants in a dynamic, full-fledged civil society.
In the international arena, the voice of a new Russia began to be heard — the voice of a responsible and benevolent good neighbor. Before us lay a long yet well-lit road.
But in the years that followed, Russia turned from it. Today, for all practical purposes, we do not have a real parliament, an independent judiciary, freedom of speech or an effective civil society. The hopes for the formation of a new Russian economy turned out to have been misplaced: Our industrial output, other than raw materials, is not capable of competing even on the domestic market. Russia’s international role has changed drastically as well — now we are more likely feared than respected.
Who is to blame for this turn of events? Not just the Kremlin. Responsibility for modern Russia’s transformation must be laid on the elites — the people involved in the adoption of the most important political and economic decisions.
As a new decade opens, we can see what Russia’s role is in the world. My country is a huge exporter of two kinds of commodities. The first export is hydrocarbons, crude oil or natural gas. The second is corruption. In years past, the victims of Russia’s exported corruption became certain European and American political leaders. Not that long ago, some of them seemed unassailable and incorruptible, but alas, this turned out to be not so.
Unfortunately, in addition to the active export of corruption, domestically we have experienced a monstrous proliferation of graft. The size of incomes from corruption in today’s Russia is comparable with the entire federal budget, and dwarfs levels that existed in the country throughout the tumultuous 1990s.
So where will Russia be heading in the next decade?
Certainly a political economy based upon the export of raw materials and corruption can enjoy a certain longevity, so long as there is stable demand for both.
Despite this, it is obvious that by remaining in its current niche Russia with each passing day loses its core national assets. Among these are a system of quality education, expertise and skills in fundamental and applied sciences, and achievements in high-tech sectors. Demand for these assets on the domestic market is beginning to decline as they become superfluous in light of the appetite for raw materials and the spread of corruption. Touting a small number of showcase high-tech projects is window dressing that fools no one.
As a consequence, Russia risks further degenerating into a classic third-world-style, raw materials-based economy, where corruption is the norm rather than the exception and there is no working system of democratic and social institutions. Some may find this prospect for my country to be deserved, but even they should remember that Russia will retain certain ambitions and nuclear weapons for a long time to come.
To what extent Russia’s coexistence with its neighbors will turn out to be uncomfortable is a question that needs to be asked today. Indeed, this should be regarded as one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century.
Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky is an inmate of the Matrosskaya Tishina prison in Moscow. Prior to his arrest in 2003, he was head of Yukos. This article was translated from the Russian by Stephan Lang.
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