Don’t be surprised if the United States and China start rattling each other’s cages again, and this time, perhaps seriously. The Obama administration triggered this latest round by announcing on Friday a $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan. For Chinese leaders, this is the worst affront, since they consider Taiwan part of China. They retaliated immediately, mainly by announcing sanctions against unspecified U.S. companies involved in the arms sale. Similar byplay has occurred many times before, but never at a time when American fortunes seemed on the decline and Chinese prospects so bright—and never before with Chinese leaders at once so self-confident, even arrogant, about their international power, yet still so insecure and paranoid about their internal control over political and ethnic dissidents.
It’s not at all clear that Chinese and American leaders have thought strategically about their next moves and how to keep the situation within bounds.
The cage rattling won't come close to blows, but it will unsettle and unnerve international affairs, and ignite a new and damaging testing of great power wills. Count on this tug of war to block mutual cooperation on stifling the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea and to further sour ongoing trade and investment disputes and charges of Chinese Internet censorship, and whatever else turns up. Most worrisome, it’s not at all clear that Chinese and American leaders have thought strategically about their next moves and how to keep the situation within bounds.
Nonetheless, the administration has decided to strike the first blow against what they regard as endless Chinese unhelpfulness.
The backstory here is a classic of diplomatic wordsmithing and ambiguities that keep the peace—and keep the pot boiling. Once Washington and Beijing established relations, they agreed that there was only one China, and that Taiwan was part of China. Beijing interpreted that to mean that the United States would not try to sustain a Taiwan independent of China. Washington never conceded this point and took the position that if Taiwan was to be reunited with Mainland China, it must be by peaceful means. Congress codified this policy in 1979 by mandating that the United States provide for Taiwan’s security. U.S. administrations sold mainly defensive arms to Taiwan, and Beijing screamed foul on each occasion. The Bush administration made relatively small arms sales to Taiwan over eight years.
The Obama arms package, now before Congress for a 30-day waiting period, consists mainly of Patriot interceptor missiles to counter the 1,000-plus Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan, Black Hawk helicopters, Harpoon land and sea missiles, and communications equipment for Taiwan’s aging F-16 fighters. The pending sale does not include what Taiwan wanted most—a new generation of F-16’s and submarines. To complicate matters further, the new Taiwanese government requesting these American arms has improved relations with China. It stopped the highly irritating threat of the previous Taipei government to declare independence from China (which could start a war) and continues to expand trade with Mainland China. China is now Taiwan’s largest export market.
The State Department justified this new sale, after a long period of relatively small sales, as necessary to ensure security in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing called it “a gross intervention into China’s internal affairs [that] seriously endangers China’s national security and harms China’s peaceful reunification efforts.” China wants the sale stopped and took several steps toward that end. Predictably, it suspended planned high-level military exchanges and visits. But it could go further and postpone or cancel the visit of China’s president to the United States set for later this year. Beijing’s foreign office also said it would impose sanctions against unspecified U.S. firms involved in the arms sale. The meaning of this is unclear. Washington has not sold arms to China since its crackdown against dissidents in Tiananmen Square in 1989. But it could affect firms like Boeing that sell commercial airliners to China.
View as Single Page 12 Back to Top January 31, 2010 | 10:38pm Facebook | Twitter | Digg | Share | Emails | print var OutbrainPermaLink=document.location.href.replace(document.location.search, '').replace(//d+/$/,'/').replace(document.location.host, 'thedailybeast.com'); var OB_Template = "The Daily Beast"; var OB_demoMode = false; var OBITm = "1255455386150"; var OB_langJS ='http://widgets.outbrain.com/lang_en.js'; if ( typeof(OB_Script)!='undefined' ) OutbrainStart(); else { var OB_Script = true; var str = ''; document.write(str); } Arms Trade, Taiwan, United States, China, Internet Censorship, North Korea, Iran (–) Show Replies Collapse Replies Sort Up Sort Down sort by date: jomama
What real 'consequences' could there be? This 'powerful China' bit is way, way overhyped - they are dependent on the West as we are their customers. Though they depend more and more on other countries, a broad tariff on Chinese imports to the US would be a fair response to their decades old policy of currency fixing which is a totally unfair trade policy. THE USA DOES NOT NEED CHINA! Why don't any of the experts get that? Most of the stuff coming in from China is really not that important to the USA - it's material junk. I say screw them, there's cheap labour all over the place. Like Mexico.
Flag It | Permalink | Reply 1:59 am, Feb 1, 2010 Biddut
I am glad he did that. Stop appeasing Chinese. They consider courtesy as weakness.
Flag It | Permalink | Reply 2:40 am, Feb 1, 2010 $('#c_total span').html('2'); $('#c_total').show(); Share this comment on Facebook
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