KIEV, Ukraine — The mass protests of the 2004 Orange Revolution were about democracy, corruption, rule of law and national identity, far more than they were about a battle between East and West.
But the choice Ukrainians face on Sunday, when they vote in the second round of the presidential race, can be seen as one giant geopolitical tug.
Under the watchful eye of hundreds of international observers, Ukrainians will vote Feb. 7 between Yulia Tymoshenko with her European-style democracy, and Viktor Yanukovich, who was twice convicted for violent robbery, refuses to accept responsibility for massive election fraud in 2004 and thinks a woman’s place is in the kitchen — not the president's office.
The forward-looking choice is clear, and its not in the direction of Russia.
Vowing to bring Ukraine closer to Russia, Yanukovich is ideologically and intellectually incapable of facilitating the social, economic and political reforms Ukraine so badly needs. And while his election billboards have touted populist promises, these would come at a price to the economy and relations with the International Monetary Fund while continuing to enrich a small cabal of oligarchs.
Yanukovich’s support for Russian as a state language could be a recipe for regional and inter-ethnic instability. Language issues, as Canadians know all too well, need to be treated with extreme caution. Yanukovich’s policies could threaten to curb progress made in strengthening the Ukrainian language and culture as well as Ukraine’s sense of national identity, issues that remain dear to the Ukrainian diaspora in the United States and Canada.
What Ukraine needs is the clear-cut and predictable application of the rule of law underpinned by a strong, independent judiciary. The Orange Revolution clarion call “bandits to prison” must translate into elites being held accountable for their crimes.
Ultimately, reforms can only be undertaken through a combination of a strong-willed leader and support from the EU. The same held true for weak reformers in eastern Europe such as Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria. Of the two candidates, only Tymoshenko could hope to reset relations with Brussels after years of Ukraine fatigue.
Reviving relations with Europe
Tymoshenko remains the best choice. Her vision for Ukraine is unashamedly European and forward-looking in contrast to the nostalgic conservatism of Yanukovich.
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