Iran Marches Toward a Bomb

Once a week, the security chiefs who assess the relentless threats posed by enemy forces to the physical well-being of the State of Israel are required to give an assessment to their political bosses: Is war going to break out in the very near future?

The requirement is a legacy of the intelligence failures ahead of Yom Kippur, 1973, the last time that Israel’s neighbors launched a concerted conventional attack on Israel – on an Israel unprepared.

The good news – this week – is that concerted conventional attack is not deemed imminent.

The bad news – this week and for many past weeks, months and years – is that concerted conventional attack is not what the defense establishment is most worried about. What keep the security chiefs burning the midnight oil are concerns about missiles and terrorism, about nonconventional payloads and secret programs, and about the vulnerability of the Israeli home front – the new battleground. And their focus is not primarily on the traditional military capacities of our immediate neighboring states, but rather on the nonconventional threat to do us harm as posed, in escalating order, by al-Qaida, Hamas, Hizbullah, Syria... and Iran.