This is a testing time for Conservatives, and especially for those who believe in David Cameron. Uncertainty is driving out confidence. Panic is outbidding calm. The Tory leader has tried to stem the tide, but his no-notes speech to the faithful in Brighton on Sunday has not had the stabilising effect he had hoped. The situation remains critical. Vote for change, Mr Cameron tells us, but even those who believe change is needed are still wondering about what kind of changes he means.
Having spent the past few days speaking to a wide range of Tories, let me set out the immediate difficulties, before suggesting some causes for optimism. The most pressing difficulty is the mad, Alice in Wonderland quality of British politics. Mr Cameron and his party are up against the master of lies and smears, yet it is their integrity that is being questioned. They have been in opposition for 13 unlucky years, yet it is their policies that are being scrutinised and tested. Labour has taken Britain to the brink of ruin, yet it is Mr Cameron who is having to explain why he won't make things worse.
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At a time when the nation should be queuing up for the pleasure of booting Mr Brown out of No 10, we are contemplating giving him another five years, for no apparent reason other than what looks like a scornful indifference, post-expenses, to what the Tories say.
Then there is Lord Ashcroft. His statement on Monday was meant to draw a line under an awkward affair, but it appears to have made things worse. What was supposed to be a helpful clarification is slowly turning into an ordeal. Documents about the peer and his tax affairs are being deliberately leaked by Labour to those newspapers that have long had him in their sights. The fox has been winged, not shot, and the hue and cry is in danger of drowning out whatever else the Tories may have to say this week.
Yesterday, the affair spilled into the Commons, when Gordon Brown ducked out of Prime Minister's Questions, leaving his deputy Harriet Harman to face William Hague. It is possible that the Prime Minister acted deliberately, to put the shadow foreign secretary on the spot: it was Mr Hague who gave Lord Ashcroft his peerage, in exchange for an undertaking that the man who was then bankrolling the Conservative Party would base himself in Britain with the implication that he would pay his taxes here.
At the Dispatch Box, Mr Hague gave a spirited defence of his f
By Benedict Brogan Published: 8:04PM GMT 03 Mar 2010
Comments 80 | Comment on this article
This is a testing time for Conservatives, and especially for those who believe in David Cameron. Uncertainty is driving out confidence. Panic is outbidding calm. The Tory leader has tried to stem the tide, but his no-notes speech to the faithful in Brighton on Sunday has not had the stabilising effect he had hoped. The situation remains critical. Vote for change, Mr Cameron tells us, but even those who believe change is needed are still wondering about what kind of changes he means.
Having spent the past few days speaking to a wide range of Tories, let me set out the immediate difficulties, before suggesting some causes for optimism. The most pressing difficulty is the mad, Alice in Wonderland quality of British politics. Mr Cameron and his party are up against the master of lies and smears, yet it is their integrity that is being questioned. They have been in opposition for 13 unlucky years, yet it is their policies that are being scrutinised and tested. Labour has taken Britain to the brink of ruin, yet it is Mr Cameron who is having to explain why he won't make things worse.
At a time when the nation should be queuing up for the pleasure of booting Mr Brown out of No 10, we are contemplating giving him another five years, for no apparent reason other than what looks like a scornful indifference, post-expenses, to what the Tories say.
Then there is Lord Ashcroft. His statement on Monday was meant to draw a line under an awkward affair, but it appears to have made things worse. What was supposed to be a helpful clarification is slowly turning into an ordeal. Documents about the peer and his tax affairs are being deliberately leaked by Labour to those newspapers that have long had him in their sights. The fox has been winged, not shot, and the hue and cry is in danger of drowning out whatever else the Tories may have to say this week.
Yesterday, the affair spilled into the Commons, when Gordon Brown ducked out of Prime Minister's Questions, leaving his deputy Harriet Harman to face William Hague. It is possible that the Prime Minister acted deliberately, to put the shadow foreign secretary on the spot: it was Mr Hague who gave Lord Ashcroft his peerage, in exchange for an undertaking that the man who was then bankrolling the Conservative Party would base himself in Britain with the implication that he would pay his taxes here.
At the Dispatch Box, Mr Hague gave a spirited defence of his friend and patron, and laid into Labour's greater reliance on a clutch of wealthy "non-doms" to keep party and premiership afloat. But in private, both he and Mr Cameron are profoundly unhappy with the way the business has been handled, and that they were kept in the dark about Lord Ashcroft's status. The peer's statement about his future intentions – he will pay British taxes rather than leave Parliament – is being ignored in favour of a damaging debate about his past behaviour. Lord Ashcroft's fearsome campaign operation in the battleground marginals is central to the Tory effort. His departure would be catastrophic for the party's prospects, and the leadership's reputation.
Next, consider the simmering cauldron of resentments in the Tory parliamentary party. Mr Cameron still has his fans among his MPs, but they are in a minority. With most, the respect has been grudging, and is dwindling as steadily as the poll lead. A few – low double digits – speak of him with a venom that bodes ill for party management. He cannot afford the luxury of worrying about life in government, but I know several who will take a perverse pleasure in voting against a Cameron administration in revenge for a range of slights, actual and perceived. Some were sacked, many were hammered over their expenses abuse, and a few have never bought into the Cameron version of modernisation. Their loathing matches the way some Labour MPs feel about Gordon Brown.
Speaking of rudeness, the Prime Minister isn't the only one whose social skills can be found wanting. Mr Cameron recently shared a lift with one of his most successful backbench MPs – a politician he once praised as the future face of the party in power – and managed to say not a word, not even hello, for the duration of their shared ride. Trivial, you say? Maybe, but he needs to be making friends, not losing them. Hence the decision to involve members of the Shadow Cabinet more by – gasp! – seeking their advice and listening to it. Still, at least the name of the Shadow Cabinet minister who had to be dragged out of a lap-dancing club in a state of alcoholic oblivion a while back never got out. Thank heaven for small mercies.
Now to the good news. First, what exercises us at Westminster is barely noticed by the rest of the country. Chin-stroking articles about "Whither the Tories?" – yes, even this one – have little influence on voters. The public has made its mind up about Mr Brown and is undecided about Mr Cameron. With a fair wind, the election campaign, and in particular the three televised debates, will expose the Prime Minister's flaws and the Tory leader's qualities of calm, seriousness and decisiveness. The markets still point to a Conservative victory, whatever the size.
Then there are the "sunlit uplands" towards which Mr Cameron promised to lead us, the disappearance of which Simon Heffer noted on these pages yesterday. What we desperately need – and Mr Cameron must provide – is something concrete to look forward to. And I gather that those uplands are in sight, internally at least. Before long we will come to realise what all the talk of responsibility and deficit reduction has been leading to: tax cuts halfway through the next parliament. Deep inside George Osborne's office – and even in the recesses of the Treasury – a route map is being prepared that leads to the kind of policies that the Tories have always believed in, but are fearful of promising. Civil servants report privately that not only are significant cuts in public spending achievable, and immediately, but that they can lead fairly quickly to income tax cuts that would include a reversal of the 50p rate.
In Whitehall, and among senior Tories, 2012 has been circled on the calendar as the moment when it all becomes worthwhile. Specifically, the freeze in public-sector pay for the financial year 2011-12 will be lifted. "We can't ask civil servants to take a wage freeze while we cut taxes for the well-off. So they are not even going to hint at it. But most definitely, the plan is tax cuts in the third year of the parliament," was how it was put to me.
We are not there yet. Having asked us to vote for change, Mr Cameron has to persuade us that change is necessary, or risk seeing Mr Brown persuade us of the reverse (the recovery is on its way, spring is in the air, and who cares if he shouts a lot anyway?). Even if we do conclude that no, actually, we can't bear another minute – let alone another five years – of this incompetent Labour circus and its demented ringmaster, we must also know what we are changing to.
Like the first President Bush, Mr Cameron can be condemned by his enemies as a patrician politician who struggles with the "vision thing". I believe that judgment is premature. Mrs Thatcher's vision only became apparent after she had got to work sorting out the mess she inherited. Change? Sure, but a return to competence would be a good start. That, and a promise of what we can look forward to in sunnier times.
Comments: 80
So tell me why Cast Iron Dave doesn't simply state in public in words of one syllable, that he is not going to reveal any pathways out of wreck until McRuin reveals the election date? He can even add that he does not wish his manifesto to be plan-napped by Liebour. At one stroke he will a)confirm that he DOES have plans b) show why he isn't revealing them and is keeping silent about even having them. c) show that he IS listening to public fears, and making some attempt to ally them, see a) above... Won't necessarily give him any more votes, but should give him brownie points in the polls. PS A vote for UKIP is a vote for UKIP. That's called 'Democracy'. If that makes another party lose, that, too, is democracy. For anyone else going down that route, logically, since the Labour party has the majority, a democratic vote for ANY party other than Labour is a wasted vote. I think that's called Communism.
John Austin on March 03, 2010 at 10:21 PM I have always been careful to caveat the less recent references to the Tories *keeping their powder dry* by saying it could not go on for ever and that Dave and Co needed a remedy to the NuLab finessing tactic. As you are reminding us - seeing their actions as this on the verge of a General Election presumes that significant policies exist, to be released at some critical point when they can be of the most benefit to the fortunes of the Party. Without that edge, a significant voter propensity change breakthrough is not going to happen.
It's just another sorry example of a tax avoiding scumbag buying a title and exercising power in a country he refuses to contribute to. The tory high command have been taken for ride. If I was them I'd dump Ashcroft from a great height. Can we not extradite him to Belize and refuse him entry back to the UK?
MR GRUMPY @ 08.57am ANDY G is a first rate plonker! who is playing with you ALL!. He has serveral other titles (stupid) as well! take no notice!.
joe public couldn't care a toss about ashcroft and this "scandal" will have zero affect on the outcome of the election. mandelson has tried to make an issue of it and it backfired because labour has had more dodgy supporters including non doms than any party in uk history. of course labour would like to unseat ashcroft - by all accounts his marginals campaign is being devastatingly effective.
David Welch 0857 I trust this also applies to all Labour candidates as well due to the fact that between 2001 and 2008 the Labour party accepted 8.9 million pounds in donations from 8 non-doms as opposed to only 5.6 million donated to the Tory party, FACT. The biggest donations to labour were 2.6 million from Sir Ronald Cohen and a whopping 4.1 million from Lakshmi Mittal. Pot calling the kettle black methinks. There again the Liebour party was never really any good at the truth was it?
Nice try Mr.Brogan but it won't wash. You see, most voters are not devotees of your one sided ,ultra biased anti Labour essays.All you are doing is preaching to the converted. One sentence tells it all 'Labour has taken Britain to the brink of ruin'. Nah!Not at all.The world is the middle of the a recession that is the worst seen in 60 years. Despite desparate attempts to blame Brown for this,people know it was caused by greedy 'risk takers' and 'wealth creators'and realise that Brown has implemented the correct policies to see the UK through the recession.Don't take my word for it,all I am doing is agreeing with the IMF. As for Cameron, all that's happened is that slowly but surely,and this will grow the nearer the G E,UK voters are realising that he's not a serious politician.No credible policies,apart from opposing Labours policies,a P R obsessed manufactured 'leader' who has a personal photographer with him at all times to get a good photograph for the media,and intellectually and politically miles behind Brown.A vessel that is truely empty. The Tories missed their chance when they dismissed Ken Clarke as their leader,all because he supports the E U. This of course makes him unsuitable for the people who really have influence on the Tory Party,Tebbit etc.
The Falcon @ 08.16am Don't be fooled by this ANDY G (and his SEVERAL other stupid names!) he is only winding you up!.
The Falcon @ 08.16am Don't be fooled by this ANDY G (and his SEVERAL other stupid names!) he is only winding you up!.
Since Gordon Brown has apologised on behalf of Britain for sending little children to Canada and Australia as slaves , where many were abused and lost their families , will Mr Cameron apologise to the people of Zimbabwe for inflicting upon them Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe , courtesy of that smug failure , 'Dr' David Owen and the suave but useless, Lord Carrington ? Owen should be extradited to Zim to stand trial for selling a nation and a well run prosperous country to thugs and gangstas
Another totally unintelligible comment from Andy G at 0724. I trust that the 3rd word cesspit that you mention refers to the UK? With regard to who cares what expats think, you will this time around because all the UK expats I know here in the expats club are all registered to vote and intend to exercise that right, they all realise that this is the most important election ever for UK democracy, a Labour win will consign the UK to a banana republic status under El Presidente Brown and there will be no way to overthrow him short of a bloody revolution. Another 5 years and he will have garnered so many more state dependant votes that no party will ever be able to oust him.
Truth: Vote Tory or Labour = no change for 95% of us. Truth: We have no faith in politicians and they should ask themselves why and change. Truth: The economic crisis is not Brown's fault. Forgot about the bankers behaviour? The global crisis hit all major economies and it started in the US. Truth: Benedict Brogan is trying to get us to vote Tory. We do not want biased editors; we want the truth!
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