Iraqis go to the polls tomorrow to elect a new Parliament for the second time under the country’s permanent Constitution of 2006. Many scholars believe that it is the second general election, not the first, which is the most important test of any new democracy. If so, these elections appear to foreshadow ominous times ahead for Iraq.
The security situation in the country has deteriorated dramatically over the past six months. Though much of the violence in Iraq during the past six years has been random, aimed at soft targets such as markets and restaurants, its nature changed last summer.
On August 19, 2009, the sixth anniversary of the bombing that killed the United Nations representative in Baghdad, a series of spectacular attacks was carried out in the Iraqi capital. These bombings, and many others since, have targeted the Iraqi state and its infrastructure, including the ministries of finance and foreign affairs and municipal and judicial offices. Moreover, as United States troops have lowered their profile, daily violence of the more random variety has increased.
Equally ominous, the banning of hundreds of candidates, most of them Sunnis, for alleged ties to the Baath Party signals a return to sectarian politics, which could reignite a sectarian civil war. The individuals banned include the current defense minister and several members of Parliament. The message from Iran’s allies in Iraq, who effectively control the de-Baathification process, is clear. While some Shiites who were prominent allies of the Baathist regime hold positions of great influence in the “new” Iraq, Sunnis will never know when they might be shut out of the process, especially if they become too powerful.
Some of Iraq’s Sunni leaders might, therefore, conclude that permanent armed opposition is their only viable strategy. True, they might not be able to topple the new Iraqi regime, but they will be able to destabilize Iraq over the long term, in the hope of forcing a negotiated settlement of their grievances. The new Shiite elites who control Iraq have emulated their allies in Iran, creating a system that essentially chooses which of their rivals may constitute a “legitimate” opposition and which may not participate in the political process.
The struggle of Iraq’s Kurds should be instructive. As the Iraqi political scientist Ghassan Atiyyah, has noted, the Kurds, even without regional allies, have been able to destabilize Iraq for 80 years. How much more will the Sunnis be able to destabilize the country, he asked, enjoying as they do the support of most of the regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Syria, and potentially Turkey?
Politics aside, the long-term damage to Iraq’s legal institutions that has been provoked by these maneuverings should not be underestimated. After the de-Baathification order was issued (by a commission that does not actually have any sitting members), a panel of the Iraqi Court of Appeal essentially invalidated it. The prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, then met with Iraq’s chief justice, following which the court’s decision was reversed.
There will be several ways to gauge the parliamentary election’s relative success. The first of these will be the length of time that it takes the victors to form a new government. If, as occurred after the last elections, months go by without the formation of a government, this will be confirmation that Iraq’s political elites will continue to subordinate the desperate needs of the country – for security, electricity, water, and basic services – to their political futures as they haggle over positions.
Whether competent technocrats, or as has happened in the past, party hacks are appointed to the ministries will be a telling sign.
Another sign will be the extent to which the newly elected leadership in Baghdad, which is likely to be largely the same as the current leadership, reaches out to genuine Sunni leaders. Doing so might well mean a retreat from the pre-election banning of candidates, and would demonstrate a maturity among the Shiite political elites that they have not yet shown.
Finally, the reaction of the election’s losers will be a key factor. That includes not only those who have been banned from running for office, but others as well. For example, it is likely that the current prime minister will not be able to form a new government. Even the two principal Kurdish parties, aside from competing with each other, are also facing a challenge from an independent party, Goran, and are likely to lose some ground to it. If these losers engage in post-election jockeying to cheat opponents of their fair allotment of seats, that will tell us much about the future.
Whether Iraq achieves stability or is once again ripped apart by sectarian violence now depends, as it always has, on the country’s new political elites. If the past is an indication of their future performance, there is reason for deep concern.
Feisal Amin Rasoul al-Istrabadi, a visiting professor of law at the Maurer School of Law at Indiana University, served as Iraq’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations from 2004 to 2007 and was principal drafter of the country’s interim Constitution of 2004. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate © (www.project-syndicate.org).
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