Trying to make sense of Afghan politics does not get any easier with the recent arrest of the senior Taliban commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Pakistan. Many view the capture of the Taliban No. 2, Mullah Omar’s deputy, as a boon for the counterinsurgency campaign, and indeed some leaders of the U.S.-led coalition see it as a welcome signal that Pakistan may now be turning against the Afghan Taliban.
Many others, however, including some top Afghan and international officials, interpret the development more darkly. They see it as a Pakistani gambit aimed at marginalizing the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, and winning Islamabad a prominent seat at the negotiating table with the insurgency leadership.
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