Can the world live with a nuclear Iran? Just a few years ago, the answer seemed clear. The United States "will not tolerate" the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran, President George W. Bush famously intoned back in 2002. Eight years later, however, America's stance on the issue is considerably less settled. Like its predecessor, the Obama administration still publicly opposes the idea of an Iranian bomb. But quietly, the policy consensus in official Washington appears to be shifting toward the idea that the emergence of a nuclear Iran would be a manageable - even benign - event. In recent weeks, a rash of articles and expert commentaries in such publications as The Washington Post, theNew York Timesand Foreign Affairshave floated the idea that, just like the Soviet Union in its day, a nuclear Iran can, in fact, be successfully contained and deterred.
But can it? A closer examination of Iranian ideology and of the dynamics of deterrence offers ample reason for skepticism that, when it comes to nuclear possession, Tehran will, in fact, behave just like Moscow.
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