What Does Allawi's Victory Mean?

It’s too soon to know what the newly-released results of Iraq’s March 7 national election will mean for that country—or for America’s national security. At first blush, the outcome seems dramatic: the coalition of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has won fewer seats than the coalition of his rival and former prime minister Iyad Allawi. But that’s a far cry from saying that Allawi will govern Iraq. Thanks in part to the narrow gap between the two front-runners (91 seats for Allawi, 89 for Maliki), what comes now is a mad scramble among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds; among secularists and religious zealots; among people who like America and people who despise America; and among horse-traders swapping everything from prospective oil revenues to territorial claims. The process could drag on for weeks, or even stretch into the blistering Baghdad summer.