These are dramatic days in the Arab-Israeli war-and-peace department, but will they prove to be truly historic, or only transiently tumultuous?
The center of gravity of current events remains how US-Israeli relations will impact on attempts by Washington to re-start Palestinian-Israeli negotiations on the basis of “proximity talks” mediated by the American special envoy George Mitchell. The American and Israeli governments are locked in a serious battle of wits and wills that has included tough words from both sides: senior Americans have publicly chastized Israel for insulting the Obama administration and for endangering American lives and foreign-policy goals in the region, while senior Israeli Cabinet members were quoted in the past few days as saying that the administration is pursuing “diseased, insane” policies and is a “strategic disaster” and a “catastrophe” for Israel.
The initial American call for Israel to freeze all settlements and for Arabs to offer gestures of proto-recognition of Israel were turned down by both sides last year, and now the United States has regrouped and returned with the plan for proximity talks. This peace-making process is neither happy nor smooth, and may not be serious, either.
I suspect we must assess both personality and policy to make sense of these events, and US President Barack Obama and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu are the only players on the stage for now, as the Palestinian-Arab side has relegated itself to being an interested semi-spectator.
The personality-policy intersection is paramount for the American and Israeli leaders, both of whom must make major decisions soon on accommodating or confronting each other. For the moment, they have staked out irreconcilable hardline positions: the US demands a total freeze on new Jewish colonies in Arab East Jerusalem and an extension of the partial, 10-month freeze in the West Bank, and Israel refuses to comply.
Obama emerged from his victorious battle to pass health-care reform in the US with heightened credibility as a patient, determined, focused and ultimately successful leader. How this translates into his policies in foreign affairs may soon be seen – starting perhaps with the confrontation with Netanyahu. Many other domestic and regional factors influence American ties with Israel, yet the personality-policy link will prove significant in the months ahead. What defines these men will heavily determine what policies they pursue.
Obama’s life experiences suggest there are four basic characteristics defining his personality, and which of the four comes to the forefront will largely define his policies. First, he has been a law student and law professor, with a profound commitment to the two core components of that universe: the fair, consistent delivery of justice on the basis of a single law applied equally to all concerned. Second, he has been a community organizer in Chicago, where he saw the injustices and grievances suffered by ordinary folks and harnessed their collective power to influence the political system. Third, he has been a very successful politician, a profession requiring him to take initiatives, play to the crowd, make deals and compromises, and, when needed, bully, smother and smash the opposition in order to prevail. Fourth, and perhaps most important for him now in my view, he has always been an avid basketball player.
The skills that make a great basketball player will serve him well if they complement the lessons he learned in his three other roles. Basketball is a game of personal talent, physical endurance, team coordination and subtle tactical shifts, in the context of an overall flexible strategy that takes into account the total environment on and off the court, in current and future time. It requires capitalizing on your strengths and minimizing your weaknesses, while exploiting the openings created by your opponent’s positioning or conditioning. You win when you make the right decisions on when to engage in a full-court press or to lay back, be deliberate or aggressive in your attack, use a man-to-man or zone defense, slam-dunk inside or take three-point shots from outside, and other such critical issues. External factors also matter, like crowd noise, travel fatigue, trash-talking opponents, theatrical coaches, injuries, and consistent referees.
We know how Obama has behaved as a lawyer, politician and community organizer, but the challenges he faces now – especially in the Midedle East – require that he draw on the strategic thinking and agility that he has learned on the basketball court. Faced with a large, stubborn opponent, in basketball as in power politics, sometimes you play in-your-face, slam-dunk basketball, and sometimes you bob, weave, dribble, pass, fake and feint several other moves before wearing down the opponent, and sinking a neat three-point winner just before time expires.
Obama did not do so well choosing his winning teams for the March Madness annual college championship playoffs, so let us hope that he draws on the other half of his basketball brain in designing his next steps in Middle Eastern politics and diplomacy.
Rami G. Khouri is published regularly by THE DAILY STAR.
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