Until only recently, the territory of the former Soviet Union appeared to be a vast geopolitical battlefield on which major world powers fought it out for the choicest “trophies.” Today, everything has changed. Almost every major power has run up against its own dire economic and political problems. This has made them too preoccupied with resolving their own problems to pay much attention to what is happening on former Soviet soil. That, in turn, has opened up an opportunity for Russia to demonstrate its leadership potential. But is Russia capable of taking advantage of these newfound opportunities?
It is as if the situation has reverted to what it was in the early 1990s. Then, amid the chaos and confusion of the Soviet breakup, there were few world powers desirous of getting involved in the murky politics of the newly independent states. The major powers only began taking a real interest in the region — and, consequently, began competing with one another — toward the end of the 1990s, when the situation gained some clarity and a degree of stability had spread throughout the region. During the initial and riskiest phase of the early 1990s, Moscow was the only power compelled to participate in events in its neighborhood. This was partly due to inertia from having just functioned as the region’s center, and partly because Moscow was unable to isolate itself from the turbulent events occurring in its former outlying territories.
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