Barack Obama, the US president, has said that American troops will start to withdraw from Afghanistan in a year from now; eventually Nato forces will leave and at some point dialogue with the Taliban will begin. So Nato is now planning the end-game, aiming to weaken the Taliban before negotiations start by first driving them from Kandahar. But it is far from clear how the end-game will unfold. With concern rising about the low level of Afghan civilian support, the Kandahar operation may not even start before autumn, despite increasing impatience in Nato capitals.
Coalition forces went into Afghanistan in 2001 to attack al-Qaeda, destroy its safe-haven and prevent further terrorist attacks. This is still the stated objective of the Afghan campaign even though al-Qaeda is no longer in Afghanistan; its capacity to organise another 9/11 is, to all intents and purposes, non-existent; and its Taliban sponsors have repeatedly said that when they return to power they will neither interfere themselves in the affairs of any other state, nor allow anyone else to do so from Afghan territory. But after nine years of fighting, what will “victory” look like? To quote a senior Russian official, winning in Afghanistan is not like planting a flag on top of the Reichstag. Success will be more a matter of perception than of fact.
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