Geopolitical tectonic plates began grinding menacingly five years ago when Turkey embarked on negotiations for membership in the European Union. But it didn't take long for Ankara to conclude that the EU was playacting. There was little appetite for adding 70 million Turkish Muslims (80 million by the end of a projected 10-year negotiation) to EU's 20 million Muslims (Pakistani Brits, North African French, Turkish Germans). Church attendance in Europe is in steep decline while thousands of mosques are filled to overflowing. It was time for Turkey to move on.
In 2003, Turkey already had demonstrated that its close alliance with the United States in particular and the NATO alliance in general could not be taken for granted. As the U.S. 4th Infantry Division was about to disembark in Turkey and transit to Iraq to be part of a pincer movement on Saddam Hussein's regime, Ankara said no, and the pincer collapsed. Adding much expense and replanning, the 4th ID was rerouted around the Arabian Peninsula to Kuwait. Then-Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, in a preparatory conference with Turkish leaders, had misread the signals.
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