It is abundantly clear, as of now, that there will be two winners and two losers in the Afghan war. The Taliban, and hence Pakistan, will emerge the gainer; The U.S., and hence India, will come out on the losing side. The Taliban wins not simply by not losing but also because President Karzai seems to have made up his mind to strike a deal with it through the process of reconciliation. Pakistan benefits by the Taliban remaining undefeated on the battlefield as well as through the Karzai-Taliban political deal, for which the Afghan President needs its good offices. This is true despite the fact that there is not much love lost between Pakistan and the Taliban. David Ibsy, an American strategic analyst, in his new book, Afghanistan: graveyard of empires, makes a pertinent observation. He says Pakistan wanted to create a ‘strategic depth' for itself in Afghanistan, but has ended up conceding a ‘strategic depth' to the Taliban, as well Al Qaeda, in Pakistan.
The Americans are losing by not winning. They are groping for a policy on Afghanistan that would enable Mr. Obama to keep to his pledge to begin withdrawing his troops by July next year with at least a semblance of success for the strategy which his commander on the spot Gen. McChrystal dragged him into. Nobody, not even the military, claims that the Marja operation a few months ago has been anywhere near success. Marja was supposed to be a forerunner to a bigger operation in Kandahar, a kind of appetiser before the main course. By now, Gen. McChrystal has admitted that the Kandahar operation would be delayed by several months. Democrats and Republicans alike are getting impatient with the steady and mounting American casualties and drain on the treasury. The review that Mr.Obama has scheduled for the end of the year might have to be brought forward; in any case, it will be the third such review. The military will predictably put the necessary gloss on its assessment. The American public will hope that the review does not result in another military surge. They must be dreading these reviews!
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