In the action-packed theatre of Afghanistan-Pakistan, or Af-Pak, the game keeps changing. That is one of the reasons why, in the wake of the WikiLeaks documents release story, analysts from New Delhi to Washington made two basic assumptions, and got both wrong.
The first assumption, widely written up, was that the release of the documents heralded the beginning of the end for international forces engaged in Afghanistan. Those who made the assumption dubbed Afghanistan the “unwinnable war”. Some like American political analyst George Friedman said the 90,000-plus classified military cables and reports had made “the most powerful case yet for withdrawal”. The assumption was also based on the fact that a pullout would be natural progression from the Kabul conference in London this January. At that conference Britain had pushed for talks with all the Taliban groups, a move the U.S. and Afghanistan seemed to support — with both endorsing Pakistan's stewardship of the process. With the Wiki-leaked documents showing on the one hand how badly the International Security Assistance Force's (ISAF) operations in Afghanistan, particularly the southern offensives in Marjah, Helmand and Kandahar, were faring and on the other hand revealing the extent of the ISI's role in squiring the Taliban counter-offensives despite claims to the contrary, it seemed clear that the next step would be negotiating a cut-and-run from the mess.
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