Under the ageing King Abdullah, those in the Al-Saud family seeking to advance economic, legal, and political (or, perhaps more accurately, administrative) reform seem to be in a race against the clock. The assumption of many inside the kingdom is that the next two to three years could be decisive. Elite figures sympathetic to reform are concerned that what has been achieved – modest by international standards, significant by Saudi Arabia’s – will stall under a King Sultan or a King Nayef (the more likely of the two, given health concerns about Crown Prince Sultan). Changes made since Abdullah acceded in 2005 lack an institutional basis and have not captured the imagination of Saudis, leading to the impression that they constitute personal whims that can as easily be taken back or put indefinitely on the back burner.

