It is 20 years since, in the aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall, China and the Soviet Union began to normalize relations with South Korea. So its been 20 years since I, like many others, started writing scenarios for the end of the Kim dynasty in the North, and how the South might handle the costs of creating a single nation.
Twenty years of hopes lie in ruins. The economic gap between the two countries has widened, the North has nuclear weapons, and another generation of the Kim Il-sung line waits in the wings. Scenarios for change in North Korea, let alone reunification, are few. Yet it is not futile to think that radical change is possible in the foreseeable future.
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