As Lebanon Goes, So Goes the Middle East

It is easy to join the chorus of woe in Lebanon about the fate of this wonderful but disjointed country that once again teeters on the edge of turbulence or active conflict. The reason this time is the tension stemming from the anticipated indictments by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) of some Hizbullah-linked individuals for the killing of the former Premier Rafik Hariri and 22 others in 2005. The level of internal anxiety is matched by intense local and regional diplomacy to try and avert political clashes that could result in bringing the government to a halt, outbursts of localized fighting or killings, civil war-like large-scale fighting, or even combined local and regional warfare that includes Hizbullah, other Lebanese armed groups, Israel, Syria and perhaps Iran.