If you are an oil trader, the daily jiggles in the price of oil are of interest: if you guess right, it’s champagne and caviar; if you bet wrong, it’s beer and potato chips. But if you are a policy maker trying to make sense of oil markets so that you can plan your nation’s energy security, or an airline executive trying to compute just how large a premium you should pay for a more fuel efficient engine, you need some basis for a longer-run view.
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