Vultures Circling a Wounded Syria

The sudden heightened rhetoric on events in Syria by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and the Arab League is unlikely to change how events in Syria unfold, but it marks an important shift in Syria’s and other states’ place and role in the wider Middle East. The most significant of trends is probably the more aggressive or assertive role of regional actors, as international players find that they have very limited means of influencing Syrian government actions. This is linked to the slow transformation of Syria from a leading actor that often defined key political realities around the region, into a more passive player whose domestic troubles have suddenly clipped its regional wings. The third big change is Syria’s sudden vulnerability at home, causing other regional powers to start working more diligently either to protect their interests or to make sure they are well positioned to take advantage of any changes to come inside Syria.