How to Deter Iran When It Goes Nuclear

The United States are likely to try to deter four kinds of threatening actions. First, it will try to deter Iran from rapidly expanding its nascent nuclear capabilities. A burst of production would cause serious concerns about Iran’s ability to control its arsenal of weapons and stockpile of fissile material, much as Pakistan’s rapid expansion has led to fears that it is not a reliable custodian of nuclear power. Implicit or explicit threats of international isolation might help deter such an effort. The United States can emphasize the diplomatic consequences of expanding the nuclear program. Iranian leaders might believe that a large nuclear capability would gain them international prestige; the United States should warn them that it will only lead to international opprobrium.