How Likely Is a Coup in Pakistan?

A rumor of a possible military coup against Pakistan’s sitting though often invisible president, Asif Ali Zardari, made big headlines in the country this Christmas weekend. Leading newspapers claimed that a selection of top army brass had met in early December with leaders from the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), a party led by two-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. According to The Express Tribune Pakistan, the army gave the party leadership blueprints of a plan that involved throwing out the present government with the help of the judiciary and holding fresh elections within three months. Swift denials from both the PML-N and the army followed the news, even in the face of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani’s very public claims that there was a “conspiracy” afoot to depose the elected Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government. Not to mention that the President’s recent sojourn in Dubai left many wondering if he was returning at all.