Scenarios of survival, transformation and collapse are being written for the euro as the European Union's single currency faces, from January 2011, into its period of most fateful decisions. The crisis poses extremely difficult strategic challenges for Ireland and other member-states. The smaller among them need to be especially smart, since they do not command the resources and capabilities which better enable the largest to protect their interests and values through such turbulence. Strategic thinking is always a bonus in politics, never more so than during a crisis. It is comparatively rare in Irish political life, notably in linking national and international developments. Arguably, and paradoxically, Ireland has been better at long term strategy, such as its overall approach towards the EC/EU, than in dealing with more immediate change. There is a strong strain of inertia in the political and bureaucratic culture once high policy is decided on.

