Since the last U.S. troops left Iraq in December 2011, the country has been embroiled in power-sharing struggles, with the Shia-dominated government trying to weaken its opponents—Sunni parties and rival Shia groups alike. In protest, lawmakers from the mostly Sunni Iraqiya Party boycotted parliament and the council of ministers. Once Iraqiya ended the boycott last month, many in the United States concluded that the political crisis was over. It is not.
Some experts warn that the crisis could lead to renewed civil war, invoking the intensifying polarization among political elites. But in looking only at the top, they overlook a more pressing concern that portends bottom-up violence: the growing frustration of ordinary Iraqis with their government. Faced with rampant public corruption, increasing repression, and deteriorating social and economic conditions, many Iraqis feel hopeless and powerless. Inadequate provision of basic services and abuses of civil liberties not only tarnish the government’s legitimacy, they also encourage popular upheavals, strengthen subnational actors, create opportunities for the emergence or revival of extremist militant groups, and promote secessionism. And one need only look at the grassroots unrest that precipitated the Arab Spring uprisings to recognize the danger of a profoundly unhappy Iraqi populace.
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