The crisis in Egypt, where the generals are trying to walk back the revolution, has prompted calls to cut off American aid to leverage the military to back down.
President Obama may ultimately use the aid stick because he has no other option. History shows it is a good threat—but once used, it won't work. The United States has given Egypt over a billion dollars in aid annually, much of it for the military, ever since the 1978 Camp David agreement ending Egypt's wars with Israel. It is in effect a large bribe to persuade the officer corps to back what most believe to be a humiliating peace treaty.
The aid lever probably helped persuade the generals in 2011 not to use brute force to smash the revolution, although they probably also worried the rank and file would not obey orders to kill their fellow countrymen. The threat of cutting aid is a useful one. But actually doing so is usually a dud. Its a one-shot pistol; once fired, it’s useless.
Washington has used the aid-cutoff lever many times with Pakistan, for example, and it has never worked. We cut off aid to Pakistan in 1965, 1971, 1990, 1998 and 1999. Not once did Pakistan do what we wanted. In every case, the generals who run Pakistan ignored our demands. Often they found a new, more friendly source of money and arms.
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