With the embattled Syrian minority regime officially designated as a “hostile state” by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Rayyip Erdoğan -- who was unequivocally clear this Tuesday during a speech in Parliament that Bashar al-Assad's government represents a “clear and present danger” to the security of Turkey after shooting down an unarmed Turkish jet in international airspace -- we now find ourselves in a different set of circumstances. Turkey has rushed to beef up security in key border areas, raised the alert level nationwide, changed the rules of engagement to respond immediately to any Syrian provocation and successfully secured NATO backing to respond to an uncalled for and unjustified attack on a Turkish jet. But the intelligence community is worried that the next provocation from the Assad regime or its unwavering patron, Iran, may not come from the border areas Turkey shares with both countries but most likely from a distant place where both Syria and Iran have substantial leverage: Lebanon.

