As the United States draws down its forces in Afghanistan toward 2014, it’s easy to look at the country and see a future civil war. That, indeed, is one of the arguments made in Washington, among hawks and critics of the Obama administration, who want to retain significant military force in-country long past December, 2014. Pull out too quickly, they argue, and the Taliban will take over, chaos will ensue, and Afghanistan will return to the early 1990s, when warlords ruled the day.
Dexter Filkins, a veteran New York Times reporter, wrote a lengthy take on Afghanistan in the July 9-16 New Yorker, “After America: Will civil war hit Afghanistan when the U.S. leaves?” His answer, in essence, is yes; everyone’s rearming, and the old Northern Alliance forces won’t take kindly to a Taliban resurgence. Even peace talks with the Taliban will touch off the powder keg, he suggests. “The dilemma is stark: while the U.S. wants a deal with the Taliban, such a deal could possibly create the conditions for civil war,” writes Filkins.
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