The assassination on Wednesday of the Syrian defence and deputy defence ministers (the latter of whom was President Bashar Assad’s brother-in-law) and a senior general, raises interesting questions, and not just about the life expectancy of the blood-stained Assad regime. The rules of thumb in insurrections are that if the regime won’t fire live ammunition at the insurrectionists, and isn’t a democratically chosen government, it is in serious trouble; if it does give the order to fire and the order is not followed, it is doomed; and if it gives such an order and it is followed and the insurrection continues, the regime will not last indefinitely, as conscript forces won’t shoot on their own people for long.
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