The notion of American decline, although now pervasive, is not entirely new. Current concerns need to be seen against a history of pessimistic assessments, as for example during the Great Depression, the post–Vietnam War era, and again in the late 1980s when fears of Japanese primacy and the rise of the European Union as a world power were widely held. Once again the United States needs to overcome serious problems, but much of the thinking and writing about the American future reflects a stubborn undervaluation of the country’s resilience, fundamental strengths, and ability to overcome adversity.
Ironically, while much of the current focus has been on the impact of financial and economic crises, a lagging recovery, serious problems of debt and deficit, and competition with a dynamic and rising China, the United States actually continues to possess far greater material strengths than commonly assumed. In any case, decline is not destined by some ineluctable cycle of history. Instead, America’s future is a matter of will and willpower, in the sense of crucial choices to be made about policy and strategy. Willpower in particular involves leadership and well-informed decisionmaking. If the right choices are made in the years ahead, the robustness of American society coupled with its unique capacities for adaptation and adjustment should once again prove decisive.
Despite a lagging recovery from the worst financial and real estate crises in eighty years, the United States still accounts for some twenty-one percent of world GDP (based on market exchange rates, the IMF’s preferred indicator for international comparisons). The rate is only modestly lower than its twenty-six percent of 1980 and, as of 2012, is twice the size of China’s.
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