Contemplating the assorted ways in which Mr Cameron has been frustrated by his own side, it grows harder to be confident that either the Coalition, or the Prime Minister, will survive past 2015. He cannot rely on a repetition of the indifferent 2010 result, and a quick deal with the Lib Dems: already the likes of David Davis and Bernard Jenkin have made it clear that another coalition may only go ahead with the explicit blessing of the parliamentary party. In another hung parliament, the Tory consensus is that there will have to be a vote of the 1922 Committee, and current betting is that permission will be withheld in favour of a minority government – under a different leader.
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