German Election Arithmetic Points to Instability

It has become the received wisdom of Europe's political classes: until the German general election later this month nothing much will happen -- and then, hey presto, at 12.01am on September 23, the world will be a different place. Do not get your hopes up. Rather than delivering a momentous breakthrough, opening the way for movement on the crisis still gripping Europe, I see the real gridlock starting right at that moment. Instead of looking at the impact of the German elections on Europe, we should look at the impact on Germany. On the basis of the polls, even allowing for plenty of statistical wiggle room, it is hard to conceive of a scenario in which Germany could end up with a stable government for four years. There is only one such scenario I can think of -- but this is at present not considered a high-probability event.