The sudden financial crisis in Russia is providing a “teachable moment,” as our Democratic friends like to say. In this case, it should be a master class in strategic thinking. Before we get too confident in our assumption that Vladimir Putin has fatally overreached, or too self-congratulatory that Western sanctions have crippled the Russian economy, a bit of caution is warranted. We must not be so sure that we have reached a new equilibrium, that this is the new normal, or that there is only one trend line that will determine Putin’s future. It is a time for more, not less, careful analysis and strategic planning.
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